Regular season

Jaroslav Chmelar

New York Rangers · RW · #49

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?6 points in 28 games in a supporting role

HT: 6'4"
WT: 226 lb
Age: 23
Shoots: R
From: Nove Mesto nad Metuji, CZE
Draft: 2021 NYR · R5 #144

61Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

3030pctl

4747pctl

3434pctl

8282pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.2116pctl

0.1435pctl

0.077pctl

0.810pctl

-250pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

3%31pctl

1.7048pctl

0.2487pctl

Def Suppression?

0.8285pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

5.422pctl

12.487pctl

1.5099pctl

3.7494pctl

0:0416pctl

0:0013pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 25 GP tracked · 4h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

52.4%71pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

47.1%37pctl

O-zone deployment?

50%51pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.3 min2pctl

Support received?

15.8 min94pctl

D-zone deployment?

50%49pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0751pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.5837pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2945pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.36/gm10pctl

Pressure escape rate?

3.8%1pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 254 EV min

General Offense

5.1943

7.0842

Shot Setups/60?

1.6574

Chance Setups/60?

1.6575

Primary Contributions/60?

6.8553

Rebounds Created/60?

0.7168

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0036

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.7160

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.9475

Deflection Setups/60?

0.4776

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0030

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.4251

Rush Offense/60?

6.1434

Shots off HD Setups/60?

1.1872

1.1867

0.0029

Deflections/60?

0.9436

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0030

Entries Finished/60?

0.7148

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.4751

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.9441

0.9476

0.0024

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0040

Forechecking

7.3267

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.4776

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.89M

cap hit

$2.24M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.3M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Jaroslav Chmelar	61	Depth Forward	6 P · 28 GP	$0.89M	$2.24M	B+$1.3M	this player
Jared Wright	61	Depth Forward	4 P · 23 GP	$0.91M	$2.24M	B+$1.3M	89%
Samuel Blais	63	Wrecking Ball	8 P · 21 GP	$0.78M	$2.68M	B+$1.9M	88%
Tye Kartye	60	Depth Forward	22 P · 64 GP	$1.25M	$2.03M	B+$0.8M	87%
Mathieu Joseph	57	Depth Forward	11 P · 51 GP	$2.95M	$1.46M	D−$1.5M	83%

Chemistry

Finishes from

assisters on Jaroslav’s goals

Creates for

goals Jaroslav assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

4 pts · 2 G · 2 A · 13 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs CHI

1P

0G 1A

vs CHI 03-27

0G 1A · 4 shots · 9:47 TOI

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA 03-29

0G 0A · 0 shots · 12:26 TOI

vs NJD

1P

1G 0A

vs NJD 03-31

1G 0A · 3 shots · 10:31 TOI

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 8:04 TOI

vs DET

1P

1G 0A

vs DET 04-04

1G 0A · 1 shots · 12:00 TOI

vs WSH

1P

0G 1A

vs WSH 04-05

0G 1A · 1 shots · 14:19 TOI

vs BUF

0P

0G 0A

vs BUF 04-08

0G 0A · 0 shots · 11:15 TOI

@ DAL

0P

0G 0A

@ DAL 04-11

0G 0A · 2 shots · 11:12 TOI

@ FLA

0P

0G 0A

@ FLA 04-13

0G 0A · 0 shots · 10:33 TOI

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL 04-15

0G 0A · 1 shots · 13:26 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)42 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 3 of 4 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 6 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 17 blocks · 4 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2025-26	New York Rangers	28	4	2	6	-2
Career	1 team	28	4	2	6	-2