Regular season

Mathieu Joseph

Edmonton Oilers · RW · #21

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?Energy role: 115 hits (11.3/60)

HT: 6'1"
WT: 189 lb
Age: 29
Shoots: L
From: Laval, CAN
Draft: 2015 TBL · R4 #120

57Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

1717pctl

4646pctl

2323pctl

8181pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.2217pctl

0.045pctl

0.1833pctl

0.75pctl

-730pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

3.6%39pctl

1.2531pctl

0.1563pctl

Def Suppression?

0.7380pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

3.52pctl

11.385pctl

0.5693pctl

3.3392pctl

0:0211pctl

0:4668pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 31 GP tracked · 6h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

49.5%49pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

40.0%15pctl

O-zone deployment?

41%19pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.6 min6pctl

Support received?

17.1 min56pctl

D-zone deployment?

59%81pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0428pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.8552pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2129pctl

0.98×44pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.17/gm73pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.9%74pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 571 EV min

General Offense

3.6818

6.3127

Shot Setups/60?

1.0558

Chance Setups/60?

1.0573

Primary Contributions/60?

4.7322

Rebounds Created/60?

0.7476

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0030

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.6358

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.4265

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0038

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0023

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

0.5318

Rush Offense/60?

6.6235

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.4225

0.4220

0.1139

Deflections/60?

0.8426

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1147

Entries Finished/60?

0.6342

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.6370

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.8430

0.5376

0.3218

Exit Involvements/60?

0.1175

Forechecking

9.5778

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0043

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$2.95M

cap hit

$1.46M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium (−$1.5M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Mathieu Joseph	57	Depth Forward	11 P · 51 GP	$2.95M	$1.46M	D−$1.5M	this player
Beck Malenstyn	55	Wrecking Ball	14 P · 81 GP	$1.35M	$1.16M	C−$0.2M	88%
Tye Kartye	60	Depth Forward	22 P · 64 GP	$1.25M	$2.03M	B+$0.8M	85%
Jared Wright	61	Depth Forward	4 P · 23 GP	$0.91M	$2.24M	B+$1.3M	84%
Jaroslav Chmelar	61	Depth Forward	6 P · 28 GP	$0.89M	$2.24M	B+$1.3M	83%

Chemistry

Finishes from

assisters on Mathieu’s goals

Nick Bjugstad11 primary

Creates for

goals Mathieu assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

0 pts · 0 G · 0 A · 6 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ UTA

0P

0G 0A

@ UTA 03-22

0G 0A · 1 shots · 12:17 TOI

@ CGY

0P

0G 0A

@ CGY 03-24

0G 0A · 2 shots · 11:59 TOI

@ VAN

0P

0G 0A

@ VAN 03-26

0G 0A · 0 shots · 12:17 TOI

vs UTA

0P

0G 0A

vs UTA 03-28

0G 0A · 0 shots · 9:34 TOI

vs STL

0P

0G 0A

vs STL 04-01

0G 0A · 0 shots · 8:32 TOI

vs NSH

0P

0G 0A

vs NSH 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 6:47 TOI

vs EDM

0P

0G 0A

vs EDM 04-11

0G 0A · 0 shots · 6:46 TOI

@ SEA

0P

0G 0A

@ SEA 04-13

0G 0A · 0 shots · 8:30 TOI

@ VAN

0P

0G 0A

@ VAN 04-14

0G 0A · 1 shots · 6:22 TOI

@ CGY

0P

0G 0A

@ CGY 04-16

0G 0A · 1 shots · 8:33 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)88 events shown

The office: the right circle - 1 of 2 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 12 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 34 blocks · 6 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2018-19	Tampa Bay Lightning	70	13	13	26	5
2019-20	Tampa Bay Lightning	37	4	3	7	-2
2020-21	Tampa Bay Lightning	56	12	7	19	3
2021-22	Tampa Bay Lightning	58	8	10	18	4
2021-22	Ottawa Senators	11	4	8	12	8
2022-23	Ottawa Senators	56	3	15	18	5
2023-24	Ottawa Senators	72	11	24	35	-4
2024-25	St. Louis Blues	60	4	10	14	-6
2025-26	St. Louis Blues	39	2	9	11	-5
2025-26	Los Angeles Kings	12	0	0	0	-2
Career	4 teams	471	61	99	160	6