Projections
The Alpha model's 2025-26 verdicts vs what actually happened - every game's chances replayed?
The Cup
Model's pick
Carolina Hurricanes
league-best 51.2 deserved wins
Actual champion
CAR
the model called it
The playoff field
our field matched 13/16 real playoff teamsProjected standings
cyan line = the model's playoff cut · real seed blue = higher than projected, red = lower · Luck = actual minus deserved winsEastern Conference
ranked by deserved wins
| # | Team | Deserved W | Actual W | Luck | Real seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 51.2 | 53 | ±1.8 | 1 |
| 2 |  OTT | 49.2 | 44 | -5.2 | 6 |
| 3 |  TBL | 46.0 | 50 | +4.0 | 3 |
| 4 |  FLA | 44.0 | 40 | -4.0 | 14 |
| 5 |  PIT | 43.6 | 41 | -2.6 | 7 |
| 6 |  NJD | 43.4 | 42 | ±1.4 | 13 |
| 7 |  PHI | 42.6 | 43 | ±0.4 | 8 |
| 8 |  DET | 41.8 | 41 | ±0.8 | 10 |
| 9 |  BUF | 40.6 | 50 | +9.4 | 2 |
| 10 |  CBJ | 39.9 | 40 | ±0.1 | 11 |
| 11 |  WSH | 39.8 | 43 | +3.2 | 9 |
| 12 |  MTL | 39.2 | 48 | +8.8 | 4 |
| 13 |  NYI | 38.9 | 43 | +4.1 | 12 |
| 14 |  NYR | 37.4 | 34 | -3.4 | 16 |
| 15 |  BOS | 35.2 | 45 | +9.8 | 5 |
| 16 |  TOR | 33.3 | 32 | ±1.3 | 15 |
Western Conference
ranked by deserved wins
| # | Team | Deserved W | Actual W | Luck | Real seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  COL | 50.5 | 55 | +4.5 | 1 |
| 2 |  VGK | 49.2 | 39 | -10.2 | 4 |
| 3 |  UTA | 44.6 | 43 | ±1.6 | 6 |
| 4 |  EDM | 44.2 | 41 | -3.2 | 5 |
| 5 |  DAL | 43.3 | 50 | +6.7 | 2 |
| 6 |  MIN | 42.9 | 46 | +3.1 | 3 |
| 7 |  LAK | 42.2 | 35 | -7.2 | 8 |
| 8 |  ANA | 41.6 | 43 | ±1.4 | 7 |
| 9 |  STL | 38.4 | 37 | ±1.4 | 9 |
| 10 |  WPG | 38.2 | 35 | -3.2 | 12 |
| 11 |  NSH | 37.9 | 38 | ±0.1 | 10 |
| 12 |  SJS | 36.1 | 39 | +2.9 | 11 |
| 13 |  CGY | 35.2 | 34 | ±1.2 | 14 |
| 14 |  SEA | 34.9 | 34 | ±0.9 | 13 |
| 15 |  VAN | 34.2 | 25 | -9.2 | 16 |
| 16 |  CHI | 32.6 | 29 | -3.6 | 15 |
The model's award ballots
picked from the season's data, no politicsHart (MVP)
✗ Missed
Our pick
Connor McDavid
EDM · 96 Alpha · 138 pts
highest Alpha Rating in the league
Actual winner: Nikita Kucherov
Art Ross (points)
✓ Called itOur pick
Connor McDavid
EDM · 138 points
most points
Actual winner: Connor McDavid
Rocket Richard (goals)
✓ Called it
Our pick
Nathan MacKinnon
COL · 53 goals
most goals
Actual winner: Nathan MacKinnon
Norris (best D)
✗ Missed
Our pick
Cale Makar
COL · 91 Alpha · 79 pts
highest Alpha Rating among defensemen
Actual winner: Zach Werenski
Vezina (best goalie)
✓ Called it
Our pick
Andrei Vasilevskiy
TBL · 39 W · 0.912 SV% · +25.4 GSAx
GSAx blended with wins and save percentage among true starters
Actual winner: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Selke (defensive forward)
✗ Missed
Our pick
Ryan O'Reilly
NSH · 93 DEF · 74 pts · 2m PK/gm
defense sub-score blended with offense, penalty-kill trust, and faceoffs
Actual winner: Nick Suzuki
When the 2026-27 season starts, this page flips to live mode: rest-of-season projections for the standings, playoff odds, and the award races, refreshed with every night's games.