Regular season

Jansen Harkins

Tampa Bay Lightning · C · #10

Bottom-six playerWrecking Ball?113 hits (16.1/60) - physically tilts every shift

HT: 6'1"
WT: 197 lb
Age: 29
Shoots: L
From: Cleveland, USA
Draft: 2015 WPG · R2 #47

55Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

2121pctl

3232pctl

1616pctl

4242pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.1813pctl

0.0714pctl

0.1117pctl

0.811pctl

-634pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

3.2%34pctl

0.6912pctl

0.1042pctl

Def Suppression?

0.3946pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

51.4%62pctl

D-Zone FO %?

55.2%82pctl

4.233pctl

0.2216pctl

0:1430pctl

0:0427pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 21 GP tracked · 3h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

50.8%58pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

42.9%22pctl

O-zone deployment?

46%33pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.6 min5pctl

Support received?

16.1 min89pctl

D-zone deployment?

54%67pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0538pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.7345pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2437pctl

0.95×26pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.08/gm97pctl

Pressure escape rate?

10.9%95pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 409 EV min

General Offense

5.4346

7.1942

Shot Setups/60?

1.6180

Chance Setups/60?

0.8861

Primary Contributions/60?

7.0557

Rebounds Created/60?

0.8878

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.2981

Center-Lane Setups/60?

1.0377

High-Danger Setups/60?

1.0382

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0039

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1556

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.4753

Rush Offense/60?

7.7850

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.5941

1.3276

0.0024

Deflections/60?

1.4754

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0025

Entries Finished/60?

1.0370

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.5964

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.7675

0.4468

1.3274

Retrieval Success %?

25%49

Exit Involvements/60?

0.1578

Exit Success %?

8%71

Forechecking

11.8978

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0044

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.79M

cap hit

$1.16M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.4M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Jansen Harkins	55	Wrecking Ball	8 P · 44 GP	$0.79M	$1.16M	C+$0.4M	this player
Matt Rempe	53	Wrecking Ball	1 P · 26 GP	$0.97M	$0.92M	C−$0.1M	94%
Sam Carrick	55	Depth Forward	16 P · 73 GP	$1.00M	$1.16M	C+$0.2M	90%
Joshua Dunne	55	Depth Forward	4 P · 34 GP	$0.78M	$1.16M	C+$0.4M	90%
Juho Lammikko	55	Depth Forward	2 P · 24 GP	-	$1.16M	-	89%

Chemistry

Top connection: Ross Johnston · 3 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Jansen’s goals

Creates for

goals Jansen assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

2 pts · 0 G · 2 A · 12 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs COL

0P

0G 0A

vs COL 03-03

0G 0A · 0 shots · 9:50 TOI

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 03-06

0G 0A · 1 shots · 10:28 TOI

@ WPG

1P

0G 1A

@ WPG 03-10

0G 1A · 4 shots · 8:37 TOI

@ TOR

1P

0G 1A

@ TOR 03-12

0G 1A · 0 shots · 6:45 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 03-14

0G 0A · 1 shots · 8:16 TOI

@ MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ MTL 03-15

0G 0A · 3 shots · 8:05 TOI

vs PHI

0P

0G 0A

vs PHI 03-18

0G 0A · 1 shots · 4:06 TOI

@ UTA

0P

0G 0A

@ UTA 03-20

0G 0A · 0 shots · 8:18 TOI

vs BUF

0P

0G 0A

vs BUF 03-22

0G 0A · 2 shots · 8:36 TOI

@ VAN

0P

0G 0A

@ VAN 03-24

0G 0A · 0 shots · 2:05 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)155 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 2 of 3 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 11 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 26 blocks · 3 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2019-20	Winnipeg Jets	29	2	5	7	-2
2020-21	Winnipeg Jets	26	1	1	2	-2
2021-22	Winnipeg Jets	77	7	6	13	-8
2022-23	Winnipeg Jets	22	3	2	5	4
2023-24	Pittsburgh Penguins	45	0	4	4	-4
2024-25	Anaheim Ducks	62	2	4	6	-13
2025-26	Anaheim Ducks	44	3	5	8	-6
Career	3 teams	305	18	27	45	-31