Regular season

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Carolina Hurricanes · C · #82

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?Energy role: 63 hits (7.9/60)

HT: 6'3"
WT: 212 lb
Age: 26
Shoots: L
From: Pori, FIN
Draft: 2018 MTL · R1 #3

55Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

2020pctl

3030pctl

2525pctl

2121pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.2116pctl

0.057pctl

0.1731pctl

1.021pctl

+370pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

3.2%34pctl

1.1025pctl

0.0519pctl

Def Suppression?

0.2021pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

48.5%45pctl

D-Zone FO %?

50.9%60pctl

6.444pctl

0.092pctl

0:1733pctl

0:0933pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 26 GP tracked · 5h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

52.9%76pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

58.3%85pctl

O-zone deployment?

60%87pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.2 min1pctl

Support received?

16.2 min88pctl

D-zone deployment?

40%13pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0533pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.7848pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2437pctl

1.05×87pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.07/gm98pctl

Pressure escape rate?

6.6%21pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 459 EV min

General Offense

5.2342

6.4029

Shot Setups/60?

0.7839

Chance Setups/60?

0.6542

Primary Contributions/60?

6.0139

Rebounds Created/60?

0.6569

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1370

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.5245

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2643

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0039

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0024

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.9672

Rush Offense/60?

6.2731

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.3926

0.9159

0.0023

Deflections/60?

0.9131

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1353

Entries Finished/60?

0.2620

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.2630

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.4466

0.1332

1.3175

Retrieval Success %?

9%24

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0037

Exit Success %?

0%34

Forechecking

6.9370

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0043

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$4.82M

cap hit

$1.16M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

F

Well above market (−$3.7M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Jesperi Kotkaniemi	55	Depth Forward	9 P · 42 GP	$4.82M	$1.16M	F−$3.7M	this player
Jesper Boqvist	52	Depth Forward	13 P · 73 GP	$1.50M	$0.86M	C−$0.6M	91%
Justin Kirkland	53	Depth Forward	2 P · 20 GP	$0.90M	$0.92M	C+$0.0M	90%
Ben Jones	53	Depth Forward	3 P · 28 GP	$0.78M	$0.92M	C+$0.1M	86%
Calle Jarnkrok	51	Depth Forward	8 P · 56 GP	-	$0.86M	-	85%

Chemistry

Top connection: Eric Robinson · 4 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Jesperi’s goals

Creates for

goals Jesperi assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

1 pts · 0 G · 1 A · 6 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ WSH

1P

0G 1A

@ WSH 01-31

0G 1A · 1 shots · 12:26 TOI

vs LAK

0P

0G 0A

vs LAK 02-01

0G 0A · 1 shots · 9:20 TOI

vs OTT

0P

0G 0A

vs OTT 02-03

0G 0A · 0 shots · 8:34 TOI

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

@ NYR 02-05

0G 0A · 0 shots · 9:34 TOI

@ VAN

0P

0G 0A

@ VAN 03-04

0G 0A · 0 shots · 10:29 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 04-05

0G 0A · 0 shots · 14:04 TOI

@ CHI

0P

0G 0A

@ CHI 04-09

0G 0A · 1 shots · 13:57 TOI

@ UTA

0P

0G 0A

@ UTA 04-11

0G 0A · 1 shots · 9:52 TOI

@ PHI

0P

0G 0A

@ PHI 04-13

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:21 TOI

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI 04-14

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:29 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)162 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 1 of 2 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 5 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 22 blocks · 1 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2018-19	Montréal Canadiens	79	11	23	34	1
2019-20	Montréal Canadiens	36	6	2	8	-11
2020-21	Montréal Canadiens	56	5	15	20	-1
2021-22	Carolina Hurricanes	66	12	17	29	3
2022-23	Carolina Hurricanes	82	18	25	43	10
2023-24	Carolina Hurricanes	79	12	15	27	-4
2024-25	Carolina Hurricanes	78	12	21	33	9
2025-26	Carolina Hurricanes	42	2	7	9	3
Career	2 teams	518	78	125	203	10