Regular season

Donovan Sebrango

Florida Panthers · D · #73

Depth DHeavy Hitter?77 hits (7.3/60) - punishes the forecheck

HT: 6'2"
WT: 223 lb
Age: 24
Shoots: L
From: Ottawa, CAN
Draft: 2020 DET · R3 #63

57Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

2121pctl

3434pctl

4141pctl

2525pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.1926pctl

0.006pctl

0.1942pctl

0.823pctl

-531pctl

027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

1.2%7pctl

1.2933pctl

0.0414pctl

Def Suppression?

0.1515pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.765pctl

3.0214pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

3.89pctl

7.394pctl

0.1921pctl

0:0217pctl

0:4726pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 29 GP tracked · 8h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

46.2%22pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

43.2%23pctl

O-zone deployment?

50%49pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.7 min7pctl

Support received?

15.3 min100pctl

D-zone deployment?

50%51pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0754pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.156pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.1722pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.40/gm5pctl

Pressure escape rate?

5.0%4pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 601 EV min

General Offense

3.0035

2.3024

Shot Setups/60?

0.8051

Chance Setups/60?

0.5033

Primary Contributions/60?

3.8039

Rebounds Created/60?

0.4061

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1079

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.2023

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.0020

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1052

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.8061

Rush Offense/60?

5.8054

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.4067

0.4072

0.1066

Deflections/60?

0.0026

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0034

Entries Finished/60?

0.4069

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.0022

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

2.1028

0.2021

1.9036

Retrieval Success %?

10%24

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0039

Exit Success %?

0%39

Forechecking

1.4084

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.1086

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.78M

cap hit

$1.51M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.7M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Donovan Sebrango	57	Heavy Hitter	8 P · 42 GP	$0.78M	$1.51M	C+$0.7M	this player
Brayden Pachal	60	Heavy Hitter	7 P · 39 GP	$1.19M	$2.12M	B+$0.9M	88%
Jeff Petry	57	Depth Defenseman	9 P · 67 GP	-	$1.51M	-	88%
Urho Vaakanainen	58	Depth Defenseman	6 P · 34 GP	$1.55M	$1.70M	C+$0.2M	85%
Sam Dickinson	59	Depth Defenseman	14 P · 72 GP	$0.94M	$1.91M	B+$1.0M	85%

Chemistry

Finishes from

assisters on Donovan’s goals

No credited connections yet.

Creates for

goals Donovan assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

5 pts · 0 G · 5 A · 12 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.6 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

@ NYR 03-29

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:42 TOI

vs OTT

1P

0G 1A

vs OTT 03-31

0G 1A · 0 shots · 17:55 TOI

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs BOS 04-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 20:29 TOI

@ PIT

0P

0G 0A

@ PIT 04-04

0G 0A · 3 shots · 22:42 TOI

@ PIT

0P

0G 0A

@ PIT 04-05

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:00 TOI

@ MTL

1P

0G 1A

@ MTL 04-07

0G 1A · 1 shots · 19:24 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 04-09

0G 0A · 3 shots · 20:24 TOI

@ TOR

1P

0G 1A

@ TOR 04-11

0G 1A · 0 shots · 19:30 TOI

vs NYR

1P

0G 1A

vs NYR 04-13

0G 1A · 2 shots · 21:57 TOI

vs DET

1P

0G 1A

vs DET 04-15

0G 1A · 1 shots · 20:03 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)137 events shown

Playmaking gravity: 8 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 32 blocks · 2 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2024-25	Ottawa Senators	2	0	0	0	-1
2025-26	Ottawa Senators	2	0	0	0	-1
2025-26	Florida Panthers	40	0	8	8	-4
Career	2 teams	44	0	8	8	-6