HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Brad Marchand

Florida Panthers · LW · #63
First-line playerDual Threat?27G + 27A - elite at finishing and creating (top ~10% of forwards in both)
HT
5'9"
WT
180 lb
Age
38
Shoots
L
From
Halifax, CAN
Draft
2006 BOS · R3 #71
87Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
8585pctl
Playmaking?
8585pctl
Transition?
8585pctl
Defense?
2525pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
1.0494pctl
Goals / GP?
0.5297pctl
Assists / GP?
0.5289pctl
Shots / GP?
2.791pctl
Plus/Minus?
-1610pctl
PP Points?
2087pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
11.1%93pctl
ZEIS?
4.3095pctl
PSPL?
0.3396pctl
Def Suppression?
0.1515pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
9.089pctl
Hits / 60?
2.327pctl
Take : Give?
0.2741pctl
Blocks / 60?
1.0413pctl
PP TOI / GP?
3:4397pctl
PK TOI / GP?
1:0275pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 28 GP tracked · 9h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.9 min89pctl
Support received?
19.6 min2pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 676 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$5.25M

cap hit

$10.09M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$4.8M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Brad Marchand87$5.25MA++$4.8Mthis player
Matthew Tkachuk87$9.50MC+$0.6M93%
Clayton Keller88$7.15MA+$3.3M89%
Pavel Dorofeyev83$1.83MA++$6.8M88%
Jason Robertson92$7.75MA++$5.1M86%

Recent form · last 10 games

5 pts · 2 G · 3 A · 17 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ CHI

0P

0G 0A

vs UTA

1P

0G 1A

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs TOR

2P

2G 0A

vs BUF

1P

0G 1A

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ NJD

0P

0G 0A

@ CBJ

0P

0G 0A

@ DET

1P

0G 1A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)278 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 10 of 27 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 29 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 26 blocks · 4 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2009-10Boston Bruins20011-3
2010-11Boston Bruins7721204125
2011-12Boston Bruins7628275531
2012-13Boston Bruins4518183623
2013-14Boston Bruins8225285336
2014-15Boston Bruins772418425
2015-16Boston Bruins7737246121
2016-17Boston Bruins8039468518
2017-18Boston Bruins6834518525
2018-19Boston Bruins79366410015
2019-20Boston Bruins7028598725
2020-21Boston Bruins5329406926
2021-22Boston Bruins7032488016
2022-23Boston Bruins7321466727
2023-24Boston Bruins822938672
2024-25Boston Bruins61212647-8
2024-25Florida Panthers102241
2025-26Florida Panthers52272754-16
Career2 teams11524515831034269