HockeyAlpha
Regular season

A.J. Greer

Anaheim Ducks · LW · #18
Middle-six playerDepth Forward?Energy role: 203 hits (12.6/60)
HT
6'3"
WT
224 lb
Age
29
Shoots
L
From
Joliette, CAN
Draft
2015 COL · R2 #39
65Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
5757pctl
Playmaking?
3535pctl
Transition?
4242pctl
Defense?
3838pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.4148pctl
Goals / GP?
0.2260pctl
Assists / GP?
0.1938pctl
Shots / GP?
1.342pctl
Plus/Minus?
+1491pctl
PP Points?
135pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
6.6%70pctl
ZEIS?
1.5845pctl
PSPL?
0.0832pctl
Def Suppression?
0.3845pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
6.444pctl
Hits / 60?
12.687pctl
Take : Give?
0.1713pctl
Blocks / 60?
1.7954pctl
PP TOI / GP?
0:0718pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:3463pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 48 GP tracked · 10h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
16.8 min10pctl
Support received?
16.8 min66pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 916 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.85M

cap hit

$3.17M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$2.3M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
A.J. Greer65$0.85MA+$2.3Mthis player
Kasperi Kapanen63$1.30MB+$1.4M87%
Eric Robinson60$1.70MC+$0.3M85%
Rutger McGroarty61$0.95MB+$1.3M84%
Zachary L'Heureux63$0.86MB+$1.8M83%

Recent form · last 10 games

8 pts · 4 G · 4 A · 17 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs OTT

1P

1G 0A

vs BOS

1P

0G 1A

@ PIT

2P

1G 1A

@ PIT

0P

0G 0A

@ MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT

1P

0G 1A

@ TOR

2P

1G 1A

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs DET

1P

1G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)209 events shown

The office: the left circle - 6 of 17 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 22 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 43 blocks · 4 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2016-17Colorado Avalanche5011-2
2017-18Colorado Avalanche170332
2018-19Colorado Avalanche15112-2
2020-21New Jersey Devils10000
2021-22New Jersey Devils91120
2022-23Boston Bruins6157129
2023-24Calgary Flames596612-7
2024-25Florida Panthers81611174
2025-26Florida Panthers7817153214
Career5 teams32636458118