Regular season

Matthew Kessel

New York Islanders · D · #51

Depth DDepth Defenseman?3 points and 26 blocks in 29 games in a supporting role

HT: 6'3"
WT: 212 lb
Age: 26
Shoots: R
From: Bloomfield Hills, USA
Draft: 2020 STL · R5 #150

57Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

4040pctl

1717pctl

1919pctl

3838pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.107pctl

0.0760pctl

0.031pctl

0.715pctl

+151pctl

027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

1.2%7pctl

0.193pctl

0.016pctl

Def Suppression?

0.4148pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.9015pctl

4.2956pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

5.345pctl

3.661pctl

0.071pctl

0:003pctl

0:2417pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 13 GP tracked · 3h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

38.0%1pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

50.0%52pctl

O-zone deployment?

53%63pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.4 min3pctl

Support received?

15.8 min93pctl

D-zone deployment?

47%37pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.004pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.2618pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.041pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.16/gm76pctl

Pressure escape rate?

5.8%11pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 352 EV min

General Offense

3.4147

2.2226

Shot Setups/60?

0.3423

Chance Setups/60?

0.0021

Primary Contributions/60?

3.7539

Rebounds Created/60?

0.1730

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0036

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.1725

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.1753

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0039

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1766

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

0.6821

Rush Offense/60?

5.6350

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.1734

0.1740

0.0032

Deflections/60?

0.0030

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0036

Entries Finished/60?

0.0022

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.0027

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

2.0530

0.1724

1.8838

Retrieval Success %?

8%26

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0040

Exit Success %?

0%40

Forechecking

0.3445

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0049

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.80M

cap hit

$1.51M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.7M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Matthew Kessel	57	Depth Defenseman	3 P · 29 GP	$0.80M	$1.51M	C+$0.7M	this player
Michael Kesselring	57	Depth Defenseman	2 P · 34 GP	$1.40M	$1.51M	C+$0.1M	90%
Zach Metsa	54	Depth Defenseman	6 P · 43 GP	$0.78M	$1.04M	C+$0.3M	88%
Pierre-Olivier Joseph	59	Depth Defenseman	6 P · 31 GP	-	$1.91M	-	86%
Elias Pettersson	56	Heavy Hitter	10 P · 70 GP	$0.84M	$1.34M	C+$0.5M	85%

Chemistry

Finishes from

assisters on Matthew’s goals

Creates for

goals Matthew assisted on

Dalibor Dvorsky11 as primary

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

0 pts · 0 G · 0 A · 9 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs VGK

0P

0G 0A

vs VGK 01-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:37 TOI

vs CAR

0P

0G 0A

vs CAR 01-13

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:02 TOI

@ DAL

0P

0G 0A

@ DAL 02-04

0G 0A · 0 shots · 7:49 TOI

vs NJD

0P

0G 0A

vs NJD 02-28

0G 0A · 2 shots · 13:39 TOI

@ MIN

0P

0G 0A

@ MIN 03-01

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:31 TOI

@ SEA

0P

0G 0A

@ SEA 03-04

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:10 TOI

@ SJS

0P

0G 0A

@ SJS 03-06

0G 0A · 0 shots · 14:21 TOI

@ ANA

0P

0G 0A

@ ANA 03-08

0G 0A · 2 shots · 18:21 TOI

vs SJS

0P

0G 0A

vs SJS 03-26

0G 0A · 3 shots · 13:07 TOI

vs PIT

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT 04-14

0G 0A · 1 shots · 12:54 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)71 events shown

The office: the left circle - 1 of 2 goals live there

Defensive floor: 27 blocks · 1 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2022-23	St. Louis Blues	2	0	0	0	-1
2023-24	St. Louis Blues	39	1	6	7	0
2024-25	St. Louis Blues	29	0	3	3	-3
2025-26	St. Louis Blues	29	2	1	3	1
Career	1 team	99	3	10	13	-3