Regular season

Nikolas Matinpalo

Ottawa Senators · D · #33

Depth DDepth Defenseman?5 points and 55 blocks in 50 games in a supporting role

HT: 6'3"
WT: 213 lb
Age: 27
Shoots: R
From: Espoo, FIN

60Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

2121pctl

3434pctl

2929pctl

5151pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.106pctl

0.006pctl

0.1012pctl

0.719pctl

-144pctl

027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

1.2%7pctl

0.8215pctl

0.1042pctl

Def Suppression?

0.4451pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

1.1029pctl

4.2253pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

4.729pctl

3.865pctl

0.2961pctl

0:006pctl

1:3252pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 36 GP tracked · 9h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

48.6%41pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

42.9%22pctl

O-zone deployment?

38%14pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.8 min12pctl

Support received?

15.8 min93pctl

D-zone deployment?

62%86pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.004pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.2113pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2129pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.17/gm73pctl

Pressure escape rate?

6.7%22pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 704 EV min

General Offense

3.0736

3.3257

Shot Setups/60?

0.7748

Chance Setups/60?

0.6853

Primary Contributions/60?

3.8339

Rebounds Created/60?

0.3452

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0033

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.2629

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.5185

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0978

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0022

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.7960

Rush Offense/60?

4.9435

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.4371

0.4377

0.0028

Deflections/60?

0.1776

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0976

Entries Finished/60?

0.2646

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.2681

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

2.9060

0.6070

2.3055

Retrieval Success %?

21%63

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0979

Exit Success %?

3%78

Forechecking

0.7779

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0049

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.88M

cap hit

$2.12M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.2M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Nikolas Matinpalo	60	Depth Defenseman	5 P · 50 GP	$0.88M	$2.12M	B+$1.2M	this player
Scott Mayfield	60	Depth Defenseman	15 P · 80 GP	$3.50M	$2.12M	D−$1.4M	92%
Johnathan Kovacevic	63	Depth Defenseman	8 P · 34 GP	$4.00M	$2.83M	D−$1.2M	89%
Nick Leddy	62	Depth Defenseman	7 P · 32 GP	-	$2.59M	-	89%
Egor Zamula	60	Depth Defenseman	3 P · 33 GP	-	$2.12M	-	88%

Chemistry

Finishes from

assisters on Nikolas’s goals

No credited connections yet.

Creates for

goals Nikolas assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

0 pts · 0 G · 0 A · 9 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL 03-28

0G 0A · 3 shots · 16:41 TOI

@ FLA

0P

0G 0A

@ FLA 03-31

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:36 TOI

vs BUF

0P

0G 0A

vs BUF 04-02

0G 0A · 2 shots · 24:29 TOI

vs MIN

0P

0G 0A

vs MIN 04-04

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:39 TOI

vs CAR

0P

0G 0A

vs CAR 04-05

0G 0A · 0 shots · 15:59 TOI

vs TBL

0P

0G 0A

vs TBL 04-07

0G 0A · 2 shots · 18:55 TOI

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA 04-09

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:09 TOI

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI 04-11

0G 0A · 0 shots · 10:42 TOI

@ NJD

0P

0G 0A

@ NJD 04-12

0G 0A · 0 shots · 20:35 TOI

vs TOR

0P

0G 0A

vs TOR 04-15

0G 0A · 0 shots · 18:39 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)166 events shown

Playmaking gravity: 9 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 55 blocks · 8 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2023-24	Ottawa Senators	4	0	0	0	1
2024-25	Ottawa Senators	41	1	3	4	-2
2025-26	Ottawa Senators	50	0	5	5	-1
Career	1 team	95	1	8	9	-2