Regular season

Fabian Zetterlund

Ottawa Senators · LW · #20

Middle-six playerDepth Forward?Energy role: 155 hits (8.8/60)

HT: 5'11"
WT: 208 lb
Age: 26
Shoots: R
From: Karlstad, SWE
Draft: 2017 NJD · R3 #63

67Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

5353pctl

4343pctl

6363pctl

7474pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.4046pctl

0.2158pctl

0.2039pctl

1.658pctl

-154pctl

866pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

6%64pctl

2.6077pctl

0.1251pctl

Def Suppression?

0.5665pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

7.568pctl

8.879pctl

0.5692pctl

1.8155pctl

1:1042pctl

0:0346pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 50 GP tracked · 11h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

54.5%86pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

48.9%46pctl

O-zone deployment?

57%80pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.0 min22pctl

Support received?

17.2 min52pctl

D-zone deployment?

43%20pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0644pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.1067pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2945pctl

0.99×47pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.13/gm87pctl

Pressure escape rate?

7.2%35pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 959 EV min

General Offense

6.8272

8.8967

Shot Setups/60?

0.8140

Chance Setups/60?

0.5632

Primary Contributions/60?

7.6368

Rebounds Created/60?

0.4447

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1983

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.5041

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2539

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0673

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1967

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

2.1984

Rush Offense/60?

9.6476

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.8165

0.8152

0.0628

Deflections/60?

1.5661

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1352

Entries Finished/60?

0.9469

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.5056

Entry → Chance %?

53%32

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.9436

0.3156

0.6331

Retrieval Success %?

33%71

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0668

Exit Success %?

7%72

Forechecking

7.2076

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0682

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$4.28M

cap hit

$3.68M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (−$0.6M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Fabian Zetterlund	67	Depth Forward	33 P · 82 GP	$4.28M	$3.68M	C−$0.6M	this player
Joel Armia	64	Depth Forward	25 P · 67 GP	$2.50M	$2.92M	C+$0.4M	88%
Adam Gaudette	67	Depth Forward	25 P · 66 GP	$2.00M	$3.68M	B+$1.7M	88%
Anthony Duclair	65	Depth Forward	27 P · 62 GP	$3.50M	$3.17M	C−$0.3M	86%
Ethen Frank	68	Depth Forward	24 P · 62 GP	$0.78M	$3.94M	A+$3.2M	86%

Chemistry

Top connection: Claude Giroux · 5 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Fabian’s goals

Creates for

goals Fabian assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

6 pts · 4 G · 2 A · 15 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.8 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL 03-28

0G 0A · 2 shots · 11:13 TOI

@ FLA

0P

0G 0A

@ FLA 03-31

0G 0A · 1 shots · 12:11 TOI

vs BUF

0P

0G 0A

vs BUF 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:12 TOI

vs MIN

0P

0G 0A

vs MIN 04-04

0G 0A · 1 shots · 9:39 TOI

vs CAR

1P

0G 1A

vs CAR 04-05

0G 1A · 0 shots · 12:43 TOI

vs TBL

1P

1G 0A

vs TBL 04-07

1G 0A · 2 shots · 9:23 TOI

vs FLA

2P

2G 0A

vs FLA 04-09

2G 0A · 2 shots · 11:48 TOI

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI 04-11

0G 0A · 2 shots · 9:32 TOI

@ NJD

1P

1G 0A

@ NJD 04-12

1G 0A · 1 shots · 16:44 TOI

vs TOR

1P

0G 1A

vs TOR 04-15

0G 1A · 3 shots · 12:51 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)272 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 4 of 17 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 15 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 52 blocks · 6 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2021-22	New Jersey Devils	14	3	5	8	5
2022-23	New Jersey Devils	45	6	14	20	4
2022-23	San Jose Sharks	22	0	3	3	-10
2023-24	San Jose Sharks	82	24	20	44	-34
2024-25	San Jose Sharks	64	17	19	36	8
2024-25	Ottawa Senators	20	2	3	5	-1
2025-26	Ottawa Senators	82	17	16	33	-1
Career	3 teams	329	69	80	149	-29