Regular season

Warren Foegele

Ottawa Senators · LW · #37

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?17 points in 68 games in a supporting role

HT: 6'2"
WT: 205 lb
Age: 30
Shoots: L
From: Markham, CAN
Draft: 2014 CAR · R3 #67

61Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

5353pctl

3131pctl

6262pctl

1818pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.2525pctl

0.1951pctl

0.065pctl

1.555pctl

058pctl

135pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

6.6%70pctl

2.3571pctl

0.1355pctl

Def Suppression?

0.1012pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

6.750pctl

4.756pctl

0.2119pctl

1.2121pctl

0:3732pctl

1:0275pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 42 GP tracked · 9h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

49.1%45pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

53.1%66pctl

O-zone deployment?

46%33pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.1 min31pctl

Support received?

17.0 min59pctl

D-zone deployment?

54%67pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0964pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.2673pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.3965pctl

0.99×48pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.15/gm79pctl

Pressure escape rate?

9.3%79pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 825 EV min

General Offense

6.6969

9.6073

Shot Setups/60?

1.4583

Chance Setups/60?

1.1682

Primary Contributions/60?

8.1573

Rebounds Created/60?

0.4447

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0762

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.7366

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.5882

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0776

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0020

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.8972

Rush Offense/60?

9.5372

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.8769

0.9563

0.0018

Deflections/60?

1.9676

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0020

Entries Finished/60?

1.2481

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.7379

Entry → Chance %?

59%41

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.6779

0.4471

1.2476

Retrieval Success %?

26%52

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0772

Exit Success %?

4%59

Forechecking

4.5160

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0783

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$3.50M

cap hit

$2.24M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium (−$1.3M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Warren Foegele	61	Depth Forward	17 P · 68 GP	$3.50M	$2.24M	D−$1.3M	this player
Nick Lardis	62	Depth Forward	15 P · 41 GP	$0.86M	$2.46M	B+$1.6M	79%
Eric Robinson	60	Depth Forward	18 P · 67 GP	$1.70M	$2.03M	C+$0.3M	79%
Jonatan Berggren	62	Depth Forward	22 P · 51 GP	$1.82M	$2.46M	C+$0.6M	79%
Alexandre Texier	64	Depth Forward	21 P · 51 GP	$2.10M	$2.92M	B+$0.8M	78%

Chemistry

Top connection: Trevor Moore · 3 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Warren’s goals

Creates for

goals Warren assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

2 pts · 1 G · 1 A · 13 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL 03-28

0G 0A · 2 shots · 10:47 TOI

@ FLA

0P

0G 0A

@ FLA 03-31

0G 0A · 2 shots · 10:20 TOI

vs BUF

1P

0G 1A

vs BUF 04-02

0G 1A · 0 shots · 9:42 TOI

vs MIN

0P

0G 0A

vs MIN 04-04

0G 0A · 2 shots · 12:39 TOI

vs CAR

0P

0G 0A

vs CAR 04-05

0G 0A · 1 shots · 12:45 TOI

vs TBL

0P

0G 0A

vs TBL 04-07

0G 0A · 0 shots · 8:23 TOI

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA 04-09

0G 0A · 1 shots · 11:18 TOI

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI 04-11

0G 0A · 1 shots · 10:10 TOI

@ NJD

0P

0G 0A

@ NJD 04-12

0G 0A · 2 shots · 16:01 TOI

vs TOR

1P

1G 0A

vs TOR 04-15

1G 0A · 2 shots · 16:11 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)229 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 3 of 13 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 18 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 26 blocks · 7 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2017-18	Carolina Hurricanes	2	2	1	3	3
2018-19	Carolina Hurricanes	77	10	5	15	-17
2019-20	Carolina Hurricanes	68	13	17	30	9
2020-21	Carolina Hurricanes	53	10	10	20	4
2021-22	Edmonton Oilers	82	12	14	26	-9
2022-23	Edmonton Oilers	67	13	15	28	7
2023-24	Edmonton Oilers	82	20	21	41	3
2024-25	Los Angeles Kings	82	24	22	46	36
2025-26	Los Angeles Kings	47	7	2	9	-6
2025-26	Ottawa Senators	21	6	2	8	6
Career	4 teams	581	117	109	226	36