HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Lars Eller

Florida Panthers · C · #20
Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?15 points in 68 games in a supporting role
HT
6'2"
WT
207 lb
Age
37
Shoots
L
From
Rodovre, DNK
Draft
2007 STL · R1 #13
55Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
2020pctl
Playmaking?
3030pctl
Transition?
2525pctl
Defense?
5050pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.2218pctl
Goals / GP?
0.0716pctl
Assists / GP?
0.1526pctl
Shots / GP?
1.019pctl
Plus/Minus?
+575pctl
PP Points?
016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
3.3%35pctl
ZEIS?
1.2933pctl
PSPL?
0.0832pctl
Def Suppression?
0.3845pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
54.0%77pctl
D-Zone FO %?
51.3%62pctl
Draws / GP
9.061pctl
Take : Give?
0.3451pctl
PP TOI / GP?
0:2839pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:5551pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 38 GP tracked · 7h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
16.3 min1pctl
Support received?
16.1 min89pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 684 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$1.25M

cap hit

$1.16M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal ($0.1M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Lars Eller55$1.25MC$0.1Mthis player
Luke Kunin53--91%
Martin Pospisil54$1.00MC+$0.0M90%
Fedor Svechkov56$0.93MC+$0.4M90%
Juho Lammikko55--89%

Chemistry

Top connection: Warren Foegele · 3 goals together

Recent form · last 10 games

2 pts · 1 G · 1 A · 6 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs BUF

1P

1G 0A

vs MIN

0P

0G 0A

vs CAR

0P

0G 0A

vs TBL

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA

1P

0G 1A

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ NJD

0P

0G 0A

vs TOR

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)328 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 3 of 5 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 11 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 38 blocks · 3 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2009-10St. Louis Blues72022
2010-11Montréal Canadiens7771017-4
2011-12Montréal Canadiens79161228-5
2012-13Montréal Canadiens46822308
2013-14Montréal Canadiens77121426-15
2014-15Montréal Canadiens77151227-6
2015-16Montréal Canadiens79131326-13
2016-17Washington Capitals8112132515
2017-18Washington Capitals81182038-6
2018-19Washington Capitals81132336-1
2019-20Washington Capitals691623393
2020-21Washington Capitals4481523-1
2021-22Washington Capitals72131831-4
2022-23Washington Capitals607916-1
2022-23Colorado Avalanche243474
2023-24Pittsburgh Penguins82151631-1
2024-25Pittsburgh Penguins17437-4
2024-25Washington Capitals636915-1
2025-26Ottawa Senators68510155
Career6 teams1184193246439-25