Regular season

Jonatan Berggren

St. Louis Blues · RW · #29

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?22 points in 51 games in a supporting role

HT: 5'11"
WT: 195 lb
Age: 26
Shoots: L
From: Uppsala, SWE
Draft: 2018 DET · R2 #33

62Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

3535pctl

4040pctl

4545pctl

1919pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.4350pctl

0.1641pctl

0.2758pctl

1.130pctl

-539pctl

346pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

4.3%48pctl

1.8154pctl

0.0519pctl

Def Suppression?

0.1213pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

4.915pctl

3.542pctl

0.2016pctl

1.1919pctl

1:1042pctl

0:0025pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 30 GP tracked · 7h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

54.4%85pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

54.5%73pctl

O-zone deployment?

50%48pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.2 min37pctl

Support received?

17.4 min47pctl

D-zone deployment?

50%52pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0960pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.8351pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.3252pctl

0.95×24pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.06/gm98pctl

Pressure escape rate?

7.3%36pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 645 EV min

General Offense

4.5627

6.4227

Shot Setups/60?

1.2169

Chance Setups/60?

1.2181

Primary Contributions/60?

5.7735

Rebounds Created/60?

0.3739

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0030

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.6559

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.4770

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0038

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1965

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.4049

Rush Offense/60?

6.9839

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.7457

0.2816

0.0020

Deflections/60?

1.0233

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0022

Entries Finished/60?

0.9366

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.5662

Entry → Chance %?

60%45

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.1249

0.0924

1.0264

Retrieval Success %?

8%19

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0035

Exit Success %?

0%33

Forechecking

3.2648

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0043

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$1.82M

cap hit

$2.46M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.6M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Jonatan Berggren	62	Depth Forward	22 P · 51 GP	$1.82M	$2.46M	C+$0.6M	this player
Nino Niederreiter	61	Depth Forward	19 P · 61 GP	$4.00M	$2.24M	D−$1.8M	90%
Maxim Shabanov	62	Depth Forward	18 P · 44 GP	$0.97M	$2.46M	B+$1.5M	90%
Jani Nyman	60	Depth Forward	7 P · 28 GP	$0.89M	$2.03M	B+$1.1M	87%
Dalibor Dvorsky	61	Depth Forward	21 P · 71 GP	$0.89M	$2.24M	B+$1.4M	86%

Chemistry

Top connection: Pius Suter · 3 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Jonatan’s goals

Creates for

goals Jonatan assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

3 pts · 1 G · 2 A · 12 shots in last 10Steady(+0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs SJS

0P

0G 0A

vs SJS 03-26

0G 0A · 2 shots · 15:55 TOI

vs TOR

0P

0G 0A

vs TOR 03-28

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:07 TOI

@ SJS

0P

0G 0A

@ SJS 03-30

0G 0A · 2 shots · 12:40 TOI

@ LAK

0P

0G 0A

@ LAK 04-01

0G 0A · 0 shots · 17:07 TOI

@ ANA

1P

1G 0A

@ ANA 04-03

1G 0A · 3 shots · 13:52 TOI

@ COL

0P

0G 0A

@ COL 04-05

0G 0A · 1 shots · 13:48 TOI

vs COL

0P

0G 0A

vs COL 04-07

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:47 TOI

vs WPG

0P

0G 0A

vs WPG 04-09

0G 0A · 2 shots · 17:06 TOI

@ CHI

2P

0G 2A

@ CHI 04-11

0G 2A · 1 shots · 13:26 TOI

@ UTA

0P

0G 0A

@ UTA 04-16

0G 0A · 0 shots · 15:03 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)128 events shown

The office: the left circle - 5 of 8 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 12 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 21 blocks · 1 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2022-23	Detroit Red Wings	67	15	13	28	-14
2023-24	Detroit Red Wings	12	2	4	6	-1
2024-25	Detroit Red Wings	75	12	12	24	-13
2025-26	Detroit Red Wings	15	2	4	6	-3
2025-26	St. Louis Blues	36	6	10	16	-2
Career	2 teams	205	37	43	80	-33