Regular season

Justin Brazeau

Pittsburgh Penguins · RW · #16

Middle-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 34 points and honest two-way play

HT: 6'6"
WT: 232 lb
Age: 28
Shoots: R
From: New Liskeard, CAN

72Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

6666pctl

6161pctl

3838pctl

7272pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.5363pctl

0.2772pctl

0.2756pctl

1.659pctl

+575pctl

555pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

7.2%75pctl

1.4640pctl

0.1873pctl

Def Suppression?

0.7782pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

7.772pctl

6.769pctl

0.3050pctl

3.2591pctl

1:0238pctl

0:0023pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 43 GP tracked · 9h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

53.7%81pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

51.9%61pctl

O-zone deployment?

59%86pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.1 min30pctl

Support received?

17.0 min59pctl

D-zone deployment?

41%14pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0211pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.7790pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.3559pctl

0.95×25pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.13/gm87pctl

Pressure escape rate?

7.2%34pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 743 EV min

General Offense

7.1875

10.5781

Shot Setups/60?

1.3779

Chance Setups/60?

1.2985

Primary Contributions/60?

8.5677

Rebounds Created/60?

0.7378

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0029

Center-Lane Setups/60?

1.0583

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.6584

Deflection Setups/60?

0.2487

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1661

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.5357

Rush Offense/60?

8.6464

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.6545

1.0570

0.1652

Deflections/60?

2.9187

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0840

Entries Finished/60?

0.8964

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.6572

Entry → Chance %?

73%68

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.9739

0.1633

0.8147

Retrieval Success %?

17%29

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0035

Exit Success %?

0%32

Forechecking

4.5260

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$1.50M

cap hit

$5.08M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$3.6M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Justin Brazeau	72	Middle-Six Engine	34 P · 64 GP	$1.50M	$5.08M	A+$3.6M	this player
Braeden Bowman	69	Depth Forward	26 P · 54 GP	$0.88M	$4.22M	A+$3.3M	83%
Zach Benson	73	Middle-Six Engine	43 P · 65 GP	$0.95M	$5.37M	A++$4.4M	81%
Ethen Frank	68	Depth Forward	24 P · 62 GP	$0.78M	$3.94M	A+$3.2M	80%
Dmitri Voronkov	72	Middle-Six Engine	32 P · 63 GP	$4.17M	$5.08M	B+$0.9M	80%

Chemistry

Top connection: Anthony Mantha · 18 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Justin’s goals

Creates for

goals Justin assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

4 pts · 1 G · 3 A · 9 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.8 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs DAL

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL 03-28

0G 0A · 0 shots · 12:02 TOI

@ NYI

3P

0G 3A

@ NYI 03-30

0G 3A · 3 shots · 14:23 TOI

vs DET

1P

1G 0A

vs DET 03-31

1G 0A · 2 shots · 11:43 TOI

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL 04-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 9:53 TOI

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA 04-04

0G 0A · 1 shots · 11:37 TOI

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA 04-05

0G 0A · 0 shots · 6:32 TOI

@ NJD

0P

0G 0A

@ NJD 04-09

0G 0A · 0 shots · 14:19 TOI

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH 04-11

0G 0A · 0 shots · 12:27 TOI

@ WSH

0P

0G 0A

@ WSH 04-12

0G 0A · 2 shots · 13:24 TOI

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

@ STL 04-14

0G 0A · 1 shots · 16:41 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)184 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 8 of 17 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 16 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 61 blocks · 2 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2023-24	Boston Bruins	19	5	2	7	4
2024-25	Boston Bruins	57	10	10	20	-6
2024-25	Minnesota Wild	19	1	1	2	-3
2025-26	Pittsburgh Penguins	64	17	17	34	5
Career	3 teams	159	33	30	63	0