HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Anthony Mantha

New Jersey Devils · RW · #39
Top-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 64 points and honest two-way play
HT
6'5"
WT
240 lb
Age
31
Shoots
L
From
Longueuil, CAN
Draft
2013 DET · R1 #20
79Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
7474pctl
Playmaking?
6969pctl
Transition?
6767pctl
Defense?
3232pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.7983pctl
Goals / GP?
0.4190pctl
Assists / GP?
0.3874pctl
Shots / GP?
1.968pctl
Plus/Minus?
+1085pctl
PP Points?
1376pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
7.1%74pctl
ZEIS?
2.5876pctl
PSPL?
0.1873pctl
Def Suppression?
0.3033pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
7.466pctl
Hits / 60?
2.530pctl
Take : Give?
0.2430pctl
Blocks / 60?
1.9559pctl
PP TOI / GP?
2:1873pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0021pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 51 GP tracked · 13h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.3 min41pctl
Support received?
17.3 min47pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1043 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$2.50M

cap hit

$7.28M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$4.8M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Anthony Mantha79$2.50MA++$4.8Mthis player
Vladimir Tarasenko75--91%
Jared McCann79$5.00MA+$2.3M90%
Beckett Sennecke80$0.94MA++$6.7M88%
Mason Marchment78$4.50MA+$2.4M87%

Chemistry

Top connection: Justin Brazeau · 18 goals together

Recent form · last 10 games

11 pts · 7 G · 4 A · 21 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL

1P

1G 0A

@ NYI

3P

2G 1A

vs DET

1P

1G 0A

@ TBL

1P

0G 1A

vs FLA

2P

1G 1A

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

@ NJD

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH

1P

1G 0A

@ STL

2P

1G 1A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)281 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 14 of 33 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 16 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 47 blocks · 7 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2015-16Detroit Red Wings10213-6
2016-17Detroit Red Wings6017193610
2017-18Detroit Red Wings80242448-1
2018-19Detroit Red Wings67252348-8
2019-20Detroit Red Wings43162238-7
2020-21Detroit Red Wings42111021-14
2020-21Washington Capitals144480
2021-22Washington Capitals37914234
2022-23Washington Capitals67111627-8
2023-24Washington Capitals562014345
2023-24Vegas Golden Knights1837106
2024-25Calgary Flames134376
2025-26Pittsburgh Penguins8133316410
Career5 teams588179188367-3