Regular season

Tommy Novak

Pittsburgh Penguins · C · #18

Middle-six playerDepth Forward?42 points in 82 games in a supporting role

HT: 6'1"
WT: 190 lb
Age: 29
Shoots: L
From: St. Paul, USA
Draft: 2015 NSH · R3 #85

70Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

5454pctl

5353pctl

5353pctl

7575pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.5161pctl

0.2053pctl

0.3266pctl

1.657pctl

+163pctl

763pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

6.5%69pctl

2.0964pctl

0.1147pctl

Def Suppression?

0.5868pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

42.9%15pctl

D-Zone FO %?

44.6%32pctl

6.143pctl

0.5287pctl

1:1155pctl

0:009pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 52 GP tracked · 13h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

53.3%79pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

55.1%74pctl

O-zone deployment?

62%92pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.2 min36pctl

Support received?

17.2 min52pctl

D-zone deployment?

38%8pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0422pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.0061pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2742pctl

0.99×50pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.15/gm81pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.5%65pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1074 EV min

General Offense

5.9857

9.1771

Shot Setups/60?

0.6125

Chance Setups/60?

0.6135

Primary Contributions/60?

6.5951

Rebounds Created/60?

0.3941

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0027

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.4535

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.4570

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0632

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.7970

Rush Offense/60?

7.6648

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.3416

0.5021

0.0626

Deflections/60?

1.5158

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1762

Entries Finished/60?

0.7857

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.6171

Entry → Chance %?

79%79

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.4571

0.7388

0.7339

Retrieval Success %?

50%88

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0665

Exit Success %?

4%57

Forechecking

0.7811

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0679

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$3.50M

cap hit

$4.50M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.0M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Tommy Novak	70	Depth Forward	42 P · 82 GP	$3.50M	$4.50M	B+$1.0M	this player
Eetu Luostarinen	68	Depth Forward	33 P · 73 GP	$3.00M	$3.94M	B+$0.9M	87%
Ridly Greig	67	Depth Forward	35 P · 77 GP	$3.25M	$3.68M	C+$0.4M	86%
Kirby Dach	67	Depth Forward	15 P · 37 GP	$3.36M	$3.68M	C+$0.3M	86%
Matt Savoie	67	Depth Forward	37 P · 82 GP	$0.89M	$3.68M	A+$2.8M	83%

Chemistry

Top connection: Evgeni Malkin · 8 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Tommy’s goals

Creates for

goals Tommy assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

5 pts · 1 G · 4 A · 16 shots in last 10Steady(+0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs DAL

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL 03-28

0G 0A · 0 shots · 15:14 TOI

@ NYI

1P

0G 1A

@ NYI 03-30

0G 1A · 0 shots · 12:19 TOI

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

vs DET 03-31

0G 0A · 1 shots · 16:05 TOI

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:27 TOI

vs FLA

1P

0G 1A

vs FLA 04-04

0G 1A · 2 shots · 17:09 TOI

vs FLA

1P

0G 1A

vs FLA 04-05

0G 1A · 3 shots · 14:29 TOI

@ NJD

1P

1G 0A

@ NJD 04-09

1G 0A · 3 shots · 16:21 TOI

vs WSH

1P

0G 1A

vs WSH 04-11

0G 1A · 0 shots · 14:32 TOI

@ WSH

0P

0G 0A

@ WSH 04-12

0G 0A · 4 shots · 16:29 TOI

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

@ STL 04-14

0G 0A · 2 shots · 19:56 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)399 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 6 of 16 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 14 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 46 blocks · 14 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2021-22	Nashville Predators	27	1	6	7	-4
2022-23	Nashville Predators	51	17	26	43	5
2023-24	Nashville Predators	71	18	27	45	-3
2024-25	Nashville Predators	52	13	9	22	-5
2024-25	Pittsburgh Penguins	2	0	0	0	-2
2025-26	Pittsburgh Penguins	82	16	26	42	1
Career	2 teams	285	65	94	159	-8