Regular season

Nils Hoglander

Nashville Predators · LW · #21

Depth playerDepth Forward?5 points in 38 games in a supporting role

HT: 5'9"
WT: 185 lb
Age: 25
Shoots: L
From: Bockträsk, SWE
Draft: 2019 VAN · R2 #40

54Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

2222pctl

2929pctl

3333pctl

2121pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.136pctl

0.059pctl

0.088pctl

0.915pctl

-442pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

4.2%46pctl

1.4741pctl

0.1042pctl

Def Suppression?

0.1213pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

4.812pctl

7.171pctl

0.1914pctl

1.0915pctl

0:1223pctl

0:0011pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 23 GP tracked · 5h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

47.4%30pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

46.2%33pctl

O-zone deployment?

56%76pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.1 min29pctl

Support received?

17.1 min54pctl

D-zone deployment?

44%24pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.004pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.7546pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.062pctl

0.85×3pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.11/gm90pctl

Pressure escape rate?

6.9%27pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 430 EV min

General Offense

4.7433

9.3568

Shot Setups/60?

1.2669

Chance Setups/60?

0.9867

Primary Contributions/60?

6.0040

Rebounds Created/60?

0.7072

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0032

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.9876

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2847

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0039

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0025

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.8167

Rush Offense/60?

9.6369

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.0018

0.2820

0.0024

Deflections/60?

2.0975

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0025

Entries Finished/60?

0.8458

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.5662

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.7026

0.1433

0.5631

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0037

Forechecking

5.0262

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0044

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$3.00M

cap hit

$1.03M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium (−$2.0M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Nils Hoglander	54	Depth Forward	5 P · 38 GP	$3.00M	$1.03M	D−$2.0M	this player
Paul Cotter	54	Depth Forward	15 P · 79 GP	$0.78M	$1.03M	C+$0.3M	94%
Cole Reinhardt	55	Depth Forward	15 P · 59 GP	$0.81M	$1.16M	C+$0.3M	89%
Isaac Howard	55	Depth Forward	5 P · 29 GP	$0.95M	$1.16M	C+$0.2M	89%
Nikita Grebenkin	54	Depth Forward	14 P · 55 GP	$0.88M	$1.03M	C+$0.2M	88%

Chemistry

Finishes from

assisters on Nils’s goals

Creates for

goals Nils assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

2 pts · 1 G · 1 A · 9 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs LAK

0P

0G 0A

vs LAK 03-26

0G 0A · 0 shots · 9:58 TOI

@ CGY

1P

1G 0A

@ CGY 03-28

1G 0A · 1 shots · 7:42 TOI

@ VGK

0P

0G 0A

@ VGK 03-30

0G 0A · 1 shots · 8:53 TOI

@ COL

0P

0G 0A

@ COL 04-01

0G 0A · 1 shots · 6:57 TOI

vs VGK

0P

0G 0A

vs VGK 04-07

0G 0A · 0 shots · 12:16 TOI

@ LAK

0P

0G 0A

@ LAK 04-09

0G 0A · 1 shots · 12:18 TOI

@ SJS

0P

0G 0A

@ SJS 04-11

0G 0A · 1 shots · 12:20 TOI

@ ANA

0P

0G 0A

@ ANA 04-12

0G 0A · 2 shots · 15:55 TOI

vs LAK

1P

0G 1A

vs LAK 04-14

0G 1A · 2 shots · 14:03 TOI

@ EDM

0P

0G 0A

@ EDM 04-16

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:36 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)90 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 2 of 2 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 9 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 9 blocks · 1 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2020-21	Vancouver Canucks	56	13	14	27	-4
2021-22	Vancouver Canucks	60	10	8	18	-6
2022-23	Vancouver Canucks	25	3	6	9	-4
2023-24	Vancouver Canucks	80	24	12	36	23
2024-25	Vancouver Canucks	72	8	17	25	5
2025-26	Vancouver Canucks	38	2	3	5	-4
Career	1 team	331	60	60	120	10