Regular season

Nikita Grebenkin

Philadelphia Flyers · RW · #29

Depth playerDepth Forward?Energy role: 86 hits (8.3/60)

HT: 6'2"
WT: 210 lb
Age: 23
Shoots: L
From: Serov, RUS
Draft: 2022 TOR · R5 #135

54Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

1616pctl

2727pctl

1919pctl

2828pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.2526pctl

0.0716pctl

0.1836pctl

0.62pctl

-730pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

2.3%23pctl

1.0422pctl

0.0310pctl

Def Suppression?

0.058pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

3.11pctl

8.377pctl

0.3769pctl

1.6442pctl

0:1223pctl

0:0018pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 34 GP tracked · 7h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

47.4%30pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

59.3%88pctl

O-zone deployment?

44%25pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.9 min15pctl

Support received?

17.5 min42pctl

D-zone deployment?

56%75pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0428pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.4531pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.1925pctl

0.85×3pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.10/gm92pctl

Pressure escape rate?

6.9%28pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 609 EV min

General Offense

2.9516

4.8316

Shot Setups/60?

0.5926

Chance Setups/60?

0.3923

Primary Contributions/60?

3.5516

Rebounds Created/60?

0.1016

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0030

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.3931

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.3049

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0038

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0022

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

0.4916

Rush Offense/60?

4.8317

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.6950

0.4925

0.1037

Deflections/60?

0.6920

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0022

Entries Finished/60?

0.7956

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.4955

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.4870

0.1026

1.3879

Retrieval Success %?

7%18

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0036

Exit Success %?

0%33

Forechecking

5.5167

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0043

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.88M

cap hit

$1.03M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.2M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Nikita Grebenkin	54	Depth Forward	14 P · 55 GP	$0.88M	$1.03M	C+$0.2M	this player
Paul Cotter	54	Depth Forward	15 P · 79 GP	$0.78M	$1.03M	C+$0.3M	90%
Ross Johnston	53	Wrecking Ball	14 P · 62 GP	$1.10M	$0.92M	C−$0.2M	89%
Tanner Pearson	55	Depth Forward	15 P · 56 GP	-	$1.16M	-	88%
Nils Hoglander	54	Depth Forward	5 P · 38 GP	$3.00M	$1.03M	D−$2.0M	88%

Chemistry

Top connection: Travis Konecny · 3 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Nikita’s goals

Creates for

goals Nikita assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

2 pts · 0 G · 2 A · 3 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ TOR

0P

0G 0A

@ TOR 03-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 8:44 TOI

vs UTA

0P

0G 0A

vs UTA 03-05

0G 0A · 0 shots · 12:27 TOI

@ PIT

1P

0G 1A

@ PIT 03-07

0G 1A · 0 shots · 10:30 TOI

vs NYR

1P

0G 1A

vs NYR 03-09

0G 1A · 0 shots · 11:40 TOI

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH 03-11

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:44 TOI

@ MIN

0P

0G 0A

@ MIN 03-12

0G 0A · 0 shots · 12:50 TOI

vs CBJ

0P

0G 0A

vs CBJ 03-14

0G 0A · 2 shots · 11:55 TOI

@ ANA

0P

0G 0A

@ ANA 03-18

0G 0A · 0 shots · 8:47 TOI

@ LAK

0P

0G 0A

@ LAK 03-19

0G 0A · 0 shots · 10:44 TOI

@ SJS

0P

0G 0A

@ SJS 03-21

0G 0A · 0 shots · 8:55 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)74 events shown

The office: the high slot - 1 of 4 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 6 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 22 blocks · 1 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2024-25	Toronto Maple Leafs	7	0	0	0	-3
2025-26	Philadelphia Flyers	55	4	10	14	-7
Career	2 teams	62	4	10	14	-10