Regular season

Seth Jarvis

Carolina Hurricanes · RW · #24

Top-six playerSniper?32 goals on 33.1 expected - a volume shooter

HT: 5'10"
WT: 180 lb
Age: 24
Shoots: R
From: Winnipeg, CAN
Draft: 2020 CAR · R1 #13

83Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

8989pctl

5858pctl

7878pctl

5555pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.9391pctl

0.4594pctl

0.4885pctl

3.296pctl

+677pctl

2188pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

12.4%96pctl

3.1385pctl

0.0937pctl

Def Suppression?

0.3236pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

10.096pctl

3.644pctl

0.7298pctl

1.2019pctl

3:0887pctl

1:3487pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 42 GP tracked · 13h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

57.4%94pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

47.1%37pctl

O-zone deployment?

64%94pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

18.2 min99pctl

Support received?

19.0 min6pctl

D-zone deployment?

36%6pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1178pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

2.1596pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.3967pctl

1.03×75pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.20/gm60pctl

Pressure escape rate?

11.3%97pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1006 EV min

General Offense

8.5388

11.1586

Shot Setups/60?

0.6627

Chance Setups/60?

0.4824

Primary Contributions/60?

9.1886

Rebounds Created/60?

0.3635

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0656

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.4839

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.3049

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0672

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1252

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.9175

Rush Offense/60?

10.7384

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.6646

0.5426

0.0627

Deflections/60?

1.5560

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1251

Entries Finished/60?

1.0174

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.6674

Entry → Chance %?

65%56

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.7381

0.6686

1.0769

Retrieval Success %?

38%77

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0034

Exit Success %?

0%31

Forechecking

4.6562

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$7.42M

cap hit

$8.65M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.2M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Seth Jarvis	83	Sniper	66 P · 71 GP	$7.42M	$8.65M	B+$1.2M	this player
Juraj Slafkovský	84	Sniper	73 P · 82 GP	$7.60M	$9.00M	B+$1.4M	87%
Zach Hyman	85	Sniper	52 P · 58 GP	$5.50M	$9.36M	A+$3.9M	85%
Tom Wilson	84	Sniper	62 P · 72 GP	$6.50M	$9.00M	A+$2.5M	84%
Drake Batherson	83	Top-Six Threat	71 P · 79 GP	$4.97M	$8.65M	A+$3.7M	82%

Chemistry

Top connection: Sebastian Aho · 26 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Seth’s goals

Creates for

goals Seth assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

10 pts · 4 G · 6 A · 32 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ PIT

3P

1G 2A

@ PIT 03-22

1G 2A · 4 shots · 18:03 TOI

@ MTL

1P

0G 1A

@ MTL 03-24

0G 1A · 5 shots · 20:51 TOI

vs NJD

1P

1G 0A

vs NJD 03-28

1G 0A · 3 shots · 17:56 TOI

vs MTL

1P

0G 1A

vs MTL 03-29

0G 1A · 5 shots · 19:13 TOI

@ CBJ

0P

0G 0A

@ CBJ 03-31

0G 0A · 1 shots · 19:00 TOI

vs CBJ

1P

0G 1A

vs CBJ 04-02

0G 1A · 2 shots · 15:42 TOI

vs NYI

3P

2G 1A

vs NYI 04-04

2G 1A · 6 shots · 17:26 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 04-05

0G 0A · 2 shots · 16:57 TOI

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs BOS 04-07

0G 0A · 2 shots · 18:03 TOI

@ UTA

0P

0G 0A

@ UTA 04-11

0G 0A · 2 shots · 18:28 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)371 events shown

The office: the right circle - 8 of 32 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 12 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 35 blocks · 15 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2021-22	Carolina Hurricanes	68	17	23	40	11
2022-23	Carolina Hurricanes	82	14	25	39	10
2023-24	Carolina Hurricanes	81	33	34	67	23
2024-25	Carolina Hurricanes	73	32	35	67	12
2025-26	Carolina Hurricanes	71	32	34	66	6
Career	1 team	375	128	151	279	62