HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Nikolaj Ehlers

Carolina Hurricanes · LW · #27
Top-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 71 points and honest two-way play
HT
6'0"
WT
168 lb
Age
30
Shoots
L
From
Aalborg, DNK
Draft
2014 WPG · R1 #9
82Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
7272pctl
Playmaking?
8080pctl
Transition?
8282pctl
Defense?
2929pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.8787pctl
Goals / GP?
0.3281pctl
Assists / GP?
0.5592pctl
Shots / GP?
2.588pctl
Plus/Minus?
+882pctl
PP Points?
2996pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
6.8%72pctl
ZEIS?
4.4096pctl
PSPL?
0.2080pctl
Def Suppression?
0.2324pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
9.191pctl
Hits / 60?
0.96pctl
Take : Give?
0.2843pctl
Blocks / 60?
1.0513pctl
PP TOI / GP?
2:5481pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0130pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 51 GP tracked · 14h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.6 min66pctl
Support received?
17.9 min33pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1122 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$8.50M

cap hit

$8.30M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal ($0.2M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Nikolaj Ehlers82$8.50MC$0.2Mthis player
Jesper Bratt82$7.88MC+$0.4M89%
Jared McCann79$5.00MA+$2.3M88%
Matt Coronato75$6.50MC$0.5M87%
Kevin Fiala80$7.88MC$0.3M86%

Recent form · last 10 games

10 pts · 3 G · 7 A · 27 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ CBJ

3P

1G 2A

vs CBJ

0P

0G 0A

vs NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT

1P

0G 1A

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ CHI

1P

0G 1A

@ UTA

2P

0G 2A

@ PHI

2P

1G 1A

@ NYI

1P

1G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)435 events shown

The office: the right circle - 7 of 26 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 30 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 24 blocks · 10 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2015-16Winnipeg Jets721523383
2016-17Winnipeg Jets822539641
2017-18Winnipeg Jets8229316014
2018-19Winnipeg Jets622116372
2019-20Winnipeg Jets7125335814
2020-21Winnipeg Jets4721254615
2021-22Winnipeg Jets6228275518
2022-23Winnipeg Jets45122638-2
2023-24Winnipeg Jets8225366127
2024-25Winnipeg Jets6924396314
2025-26Carolina Hurricanes822645718
Career2 teams756251340591114