HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Tom Wilson

Washington Capitals · RW · #43
First-line playerSniper?30 goals on 26.7 expected - finishes above his chances
HT
6'4"
WT
225 lb
Age
32
Shoots
R
From
Toronto, CAN
Draft
2012 WSH · R1 #16
84Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
8686pctl
Playmaking?
7777pctl
Transition?
7676pctl
Defense?
5151pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.8687pctl
Goals / GP?
0.4291pctl
Assists / GP?
0.4481pctl
Shots / GP?
2.176pctl
Plus/Minus?
+1591pctl
PP Points?
1274pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
11.4%94pctl
ZEIS?
2.7479pctl
PSPL?
0.2386pctl
Def Suppression?
0.5160pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
6.647pctl
Hits / 60?
7.775pctl
Take : Give?
0.2122pctl
Blocks / 60?
2.2669pctl
PP TOI / GP?
2:5180pctl
PK TOI / GP?
2:0696pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 47 GP tracked · 15h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
18.1 min97pctl
Support received?
18.3 min19pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1045 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$6.50M

cap hit

$9.00M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$2.5M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Tom Wilson84$6.50MA+$2.5Mthis player
Kirill Marchenko85$3.85MA++$5.5M89%
Drake Batherson83$4.97MA+$3.7M88%
Adrian Kempe85$5.50MA+$3.9M88%
Zach Hyman85$5.50MA+$3.9M86%

Recent form · last 10 games

10 pts · 5 G · 5 A · 18 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ UTA

0P

0G 0A

@ VGK

0P

0G 0A

vs PHI

2P

2G 0A

@ NJD

2P

1G 1A

vs BUF

1P

1G 0A

@ NYR

1P

0G 1A

@ TOR

1P

0G 1A

@ PIT

2P

1G 1A

vs PIT

0P

0G 0A

@ CBJ

1P

0G 1A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)302 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 14 of 30 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 25 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 66 blocks · 9 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2013-14Washington Capitals8237101
2014-15Washington Capitals6741317-1
2015-16Washington Capitals82716233
2016-17Washington Capitals82712199
2017-18Washington Capitals7814213510
2018-19Washington Capitals6322184011
2019-20Washington Capitals68212344-3
2020-21Washington Capitals471320331
2021-22Washington Capitals7824285213
2022-23Washington Capitals3313922-13
2023-24Washington Capitals74181735-19
2024-25Washington Capitals8133326520
2025-26Washington Capitals7230326215
Career1 team90720924845747