Regular season

Sebastian Aho

Carolina Hurricanes · C · #20

First-line playerTop-Six Threat?80 points in 79 games with strong all-around impact

HT: 6'0"
WT: 189 lb
Age: 29
Shoots: L
From: Rauma, FIN
Draft: 2015 CAR · R2 #35

86Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

8181pctl

8383pctl

8181pctl

2020pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

1.0193pctl

0.3484pctl

0.6796pctl

2.586pctl

+1186pctl

2795pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

9%84pctl

3.4189pctl

0.2284pctl

Def Suppression?

0.048pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

50.5%57pctl

D-Zone FO %?

43.4%24pctl

14.987pctl

0.2829pctl

3:0985pctl

1:4275pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 48 GP tracked · 16h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

59.1%97pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

52.2%63pctl

O-zone deployment?

63%93pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

18.2 min98pctl

Support received?

18.6 min13pctl

D-zone deployment?

37%7pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1592pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.5685pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.6594pctl

1.07×91pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.22/gm52pctl

Pressure escape rate?

12.2%99pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1166 EV min

General Offense

6.2862

8.2858

Shot Setups/60?

1.1366

Chance Setups/60?

0.7247

Primary Contributions/60?

7.4164

Rebounds Created/60?

0.3636

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.2186

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.6257

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.5783

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.3185

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.8573

Rush Offense/60?

8.1857

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.7254

1.0371

0.1551

Deflections/60?

1.4957

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.2677

Entries Finished/60?

0.6239

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.4143

Entry → Chance %?

67%60

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.7082

0.4170

1.2979

Retrieval Success %?

24%47

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0562

Exit Success %?

3%52

Forechecking

2.4739

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0577

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$9.75M

cap hit

$9.72M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (−$0.0M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Sebastian Aho	86	Top-Six Threat	80 P · 79 GP	$9.75M	$9.72M	C−$0.0M	this player
Trevor Zegras	81	Middle-Six Engine	67 P · 81 GP	$5.75M	$7.95M	A+$2.2M	87%
Connor Bedard	89	Dual Threat	75 P · 69 GP	$0.95M	$10.83M	A++$9.9M	87%
Dylan Larkin	86	Sniper	67 P · 74 GP	$8.70M	$9.72M	B+$1.0M	87%
Evgeni Malkin	87	Playmaker	61 P · 56 GP	$6.10M	$10.09M	A+$4.0M	86%

Chemistry

Top connection: Seth Jarvis · 26 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Sebastian’s goals

Creates for

goals Sebastian assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

9 pts · 3 G · 6 A · 29 shots in last 10Steady(+0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ PIT

1P

1G 0A

@ PIT 03-22

1G 0A · 3 shots · 19:43 TOI

@ MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ MTL 03-24

0G 0A · 2 shots · 21:25 TOI

vs NJD

1P

0G 1A

vs NJD 03-28

0G 1A · 3 shots · 17:44 TOI

vs MTL

1P

0G 1A

vs MTL 03-29

0G 1A · 1 shots · 19:30 TOI

@ CBJ

1P

0G 1A

@ CBJ 03-31

0G 1A · 3 shots · 19:29 TOI

vs CBJ

2P

0G 2A

vs CBJ 04-02

0G 2A · 1 shots · 16:30 TOI

vs NYI

1P

1G 0A

vs NYI 04-04

1G 0A · 7 shots · 18:48 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 04-05

0G 0A · 1 shots · 16:27 TOI

vs BOS

1P

0G 1A

vs BOS 04-07

0G 1A · 3 shots · 18:40 TOI

@ UTA

1P

1G 0A

@ UTA 04-11

1G 0A · 5 shots · 18:33 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)746 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 6 of 27 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 33 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 29 blocks · 13 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2016-17	Carolina Hurricanes	82	24	25	49	-1
2017-18	Carolina Hurricanes	78	29	36	65	4
2018-19	Carolina Hurricanes	82	30	53	83	25
2019-20	Carolina Hurricanes	68	38	28	66	10
2020-21	Carolina Hurricanes	56	24	33	57	16
2021-22	Carolina Hurricanes	79	37	44	81	18
2022-23	Carolina Hurricanes	75	36	31	67	8
2023-24	Carolina Hurricanes	78	36	53	89	34
2024-25	Carolina Hurricanes	79	29	45	74	7
2025-26	Carolina Hurricanes	79	27	53	80	11
Career	1 team	756	310	401	711	132