Regular season

Adam Fantilli

Columbus Blue Jackets · C · #19

Top-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 59 points and honest two-way play

HT: 6'2"
WT: 205 lb
Age: 21
Shoots: L
From: Nobleton, CAN
Draft: 2023 CBJ · R1 #3

82Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

7878pctl

8282pctl

8686pctl

5050pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.7279pctl

0.2977pctl

0.4380pctl

2.689pctl

-1315pctl

1376pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

11%92pctl

3.9494pctl

0.3195pctl

Def Suppression?

0.4553pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

49.8%52pctl

D-Zone FO %?

50.0%52pctl

13.581pctl

0.2725pctl

2:3674pctl

0:0832pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 51 GP tracked · 16h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

53.5%80pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

50.8%56pctl

O-zone deployment?

65%96pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.7 min70pctl

Support received?

18.9 min8pctl

D-zone deployment?

35%4pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1795pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.4682pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.5991pctl

1.06×88pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.23/gm45pctl

Pressure escape rate?

10.5%93pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1325 EV min

General Offense

6.5268

10.1081

Shot Setups/60?

1.2776

Chance Setups/60?

1.0979

Primary Contributions/60?

7.7970

Rebounds Created/60?

0.7784

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0026

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.7772

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.5986

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0564

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0942

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

2.1384

Rush Offense/60?

9.5575

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.9173

0.9162

0.2777

Deflections/60?

0.9125

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1456

Entries Finished/60?

0.8158

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.5463

Entry → Chance %?

67%60

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.5879

0.4575

1.1373

Retrieval Success %?

29%60

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0033

Exit Success %?

0%30

Forechecking

4.8464

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.1491

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.95M

cap hit

$8.30M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$7.3M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Adam Fantilli	82	Middle-Six Engine	59 P · 82 GP	$0.95M	$8.30M	A++$7.3M	this player
Sam Bennett	82	Middle-Six Engine	58 P · 76 GP	$8.00M	$8.30M	C+$0.3M	89%
John Tavares	84	Sniper	71 P · 82 GP	$4.38M	$9.00M	A++$4.6M	89%
Nazem Kadri	78	Middle-Six Engine	50 P · 77 GP	$7.00M	$6.95M	C−$0.1M	86%
Sidney Crosby	87	Top-Six Threat	74 P · 68 GP	$8.70M	$10.09M	B+$1.4M	86%

Chemistry

Top connection: Kirill Marchenko · 23 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Adam’s goals

Creates for

goals Adam assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

6 pts · 3 G · 3 A · 23 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs SJS

1P

0G 1A

vs SJS 03-28

0G 1A · 2 shots · 19:58 TOI

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs BOS 03-29

0G 0A · 1 shots · 21:43 TOI

vs CAR

1P

1G 0A

vs CAR 03-31

1G 0A · 5 shots · 18:06 TOI

@ CAR

0P

0G 0A

@ CAR 04-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:06 TOI

vs WPG

0P

0G 0A

vs WPG 04-04

0G 0A · 3 shots · 19:08 TOI

@ DET

1P

1G 0A

@ DET 04-07

1G 0A · 3 shots · 25:08 TOI

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF 04-09

0G 0A · 5 shots · 21:25 TOI

@ MTL

2P

0G 2A

@ MTL 04-11

0G 2A · 0 shots · 15:41 TOI

vs BOS

1P

1G 0A

vs BOS 04-12

1G 0A · 4 shots · 22:10 TOI

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH 04-14

0G 0A · 0 shots · 21:17 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)745 events shown

The office: the left circle - 7 of 24 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 36 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 59 blocks · 11 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2023-24	Columbus Blue Jackets	49	12	15	27	-21
2024-25	Columbus Blue Jackets	82	31	23	54	4
2025-26	Columbus Blue Jackets	82	24	35	59	-13
Career	1 team	213	67	73	140	-30