Regular season

Kirill Marchenko

Columbus Blue Jackets · RW · #86

First-line playerTop-Six Threat?67 points in 76 games with strong all-around impact

HT: 6'3"
WT: 201 lb
Age: 26
Shoots: R
From: Barnaul, RUS
Draft: 2018 CBJ · R2 #49

85Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

8181pctl

8282pctl

8787pctl

4747pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.8888pctl

0.3686pctl

0.5390pctl

2.994pctl

+780pctl

2391pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

10.6%90pctl

4.4096pctl

0.2487pctl

Def Suppression?

0.2931pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

9.190pctl

2.531pctl

0.4783pctl

1.6644pctl

3:0184pctl

0:0348pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 49 GP tracked · 16h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

54.0%82pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

66.0%97pctl

O-zone deployment?

64%95pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.8 min80pctl

Support received?

19.1 min5pctl

D-zone deployment?

36%5pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1693pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.0062pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.5184pctl

1.11×97pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.26/gm33pctl

Pressure escape rate?

10.6%93pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1206 EV min

General Offense

7.0677

10.8085

Shot Setups/60?

1.7991

Chance Setups/60?

1.3489

Primary Contributions/60?

8.8683

Rebounds Created/60?

0.9088

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1068

Center-Lane Setups/60?

1.2490

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.8090

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0566

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.4090

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.9478

Rush Offense/60?

10.5583

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.6039

0.8051

0.1549

Deflections/60?

0.8522

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.3083

Entries Finished/60?

0.9570

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.5057

Entry → Chance %?

53%28

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

2.1990

0.7088

1.4987

Retrieval Success %?

32%68

Exit Involvements/60?

0.1587

Exit Success %?

7%73

Forechecking

2.4438

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0577

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$3.85M

cap hit

$9.36M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$5.5M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Kirill Marchenko	85	Top-Six Threat	67 P · 76 GP	$3.85M	$9.36M	A++$5.5M	this player
Adrian Kempe	85	Transition Engine	73 P · 81 GP	$5.50M	$9.36M	A+$3.9M	95%
Filip Forsberg	85	Transition Engine	75 P · 82 GP	$8.50M	$9.36M	B+$0.9M	92%
Troy Terry	85	Top-Six Threat	57 P · 61 GP	$7.00M	$9.36M	A+$2.4M	91%
Brady Tkachuk	87	Dual Threat	59 P · 60 GP	$8.21M	$10.09M	B+$1.9M	89%

Chemistry

Top connection: Adam Fantilli · 23 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Kirill’s goals

Creates for

goals Kirill assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

8 pts · 2 G · 6 A · 27 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs SJS

0P

0G 0A

vs SJS 03-28

0G 0A · 4 shots · 20:50 TOI

vs BOS

2P

0G 2A

vs BOS 03-29

0G 2A · 1 shots · 22:31 TOI

vs CAR

2P

1G 1A

vs CAR 03-31

1G 1A · 5 shots · 18:20 TOI

@ CAR

0P

0G 0A

@ CAR 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 16:15 TOI

vs WPG

1P

0G 1A

vs WPG 04-04

0G 1A · 0 shots · 16:14 TOI

@ DET

1P

0G 1A

@ DET 04-07

0G 1A · 3 shots · 24:49 TOI

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF 04-09

0G 0A · 2 shots · 21:58 TOI

@ MTL

2P

1G 1A

@ MTL 04-11

1G 1A · 4 shots · 17:12 TOI

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs BOS 04-12

0G 0A · 3 shots · 22:28 TOI

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH 04-14

0G 0A · 4 shots · 19:00 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)450 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 8 of 27 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 43 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 43 blocks · 17 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2022-23	Columbus Blue Jackets	59	21	4	25	-23
2023-24	Columbus Blue Jackets	78	23	19	42	-5
2024-25	Columbus Blue Jackets	79	31	43	74	29
2025-26	Columbus Blue Jackets	76	27	40	67	7
Career	1 team	292	102	106	208	8