HockeyAlpha
Regular season

John Tavares

Toronto Maple Leafs · C · #91
First-line playerSniper?31 goals on 30.8 expected - a volume shooter
HT
6'1"
WT
217 lb
Age
35
Shoots
L
From
Mississauga, CAN
Draft
2009 NYI · R1 #1
84Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
8585pctl
Playmaking?
7676pctl
Transition?
8181pctl
Defense?
4444pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.8787pctl
Goals / GP?
0.3888pctl
Assists / GP?
0.4986pctl
Shots / GP?
2.383pctl
Plus/Minus?
-283pctl
PP Points?
2188pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
13.2%97pctl
ZEIS?
3.1686pctl
PSPL?
0.1977pctl
Def Suppression?
0.3236pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
57.5%92pctl
D-Zone FO %?
57.6%92pctl
Draws / GP
17.093pctl
Take : Give?
0.3552pctl
PP TOI / GP?
2:4376pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0113pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 50 GP tracked · 15h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.6 min65pctl
Support received?
18.2 min24pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1267 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$4.38M

cap hit

$9.00M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$4.6M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
John Tavares84$4.38MA++$4.6Mthis player
Sam Bennett82$8.00MC+$0.3M90%
Adam Fantilli82$0.95MA++$7.3M89%
Steven Stamkos83$8.00MC+$0.6M87%
Sidney Crosby87$8.70MB+$1.4M87%

Recent form · last 10 games

11 pts · 6 G · 5 A · 17 shots in last 10Cooling off(-1.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs NYR

1P

1G 0A

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

@ ANA

3P

2G 1A

@ SJS

1P

1G 0A

@ LAK

3P

1G 2A

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI

1P

0G 1A

vs FLA

1P

0G 1A

vs DAL

1P

1G 0A

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)780 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 12 of 31 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 35 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 37 blocks · 12 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2009-10New York Islanders82243054-15
2010-11New York Islanders79293867-16
2011-12New York Islanders82315081-6
2012-13New York Islanders48281947-2
2013-14New York Islanders59244266-6
2014-15New York Islanders823848865
2015-16New York Islanders783337706
2016-17New York Islanders772838664
2017-18New York Islanders82374784-12
2018-19Toronto Maple Leafs8247418819
2019-20Toronto Maple Leafs63263460-7
2020-21Toronto Maple Leafs5619315012
2021-22Toronto Maple Leafs79274976-8
2022-23Toronto Maple Leafs80364480-7
2023-24Toronto Maple Leafs802936652
2024-25Toronto Maple Leafs7538367410
2025-26Toronto Maple Leafs82314071-28
Career2 teams12665256601185-49