HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Tyler Toffoli

San Jose Sharks · C · #73
Top-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 49 points and honest two-way play
HT
6'0"
WT
205 lb
Age
34
Shoots
R
From
Scarborough, CAN
Draft
2010 LAK · R2 #47
76Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
6767pctl
Playmaking?
7373pctl
Transition?
7979pctl
Defense?
3939pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.6270pctl
Goals / GP?
0.2466pctl
Assists / GP?
0.3873pctl
Shots / GP?
2.278pctl
Plus/Minus?
-1217pctl
PP Points?
1580pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
9.8%87pctl
ZEIS?
3.2788pctl
PSPL?
0.2284pctl
Def Suppression?
0.3134pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Draws / GP
0.35pctl
Take : Give?
0.3137pctl
PP TOI / GP?
2:5779pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0111pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 50 GP tracked · 12h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.5 min55pctl
Support received?
18.6 min14pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 949 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$6.00M

cap hit

$6.30M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.3M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Tyler Toffoli76$6.00MC+$0.3Mthis player
Carter Verhaeghe80$7.00MC+$0.6M85%
Nazem Kadri78$7.00MC$0.1M83%
Anton Lundell78$5.00MB+$1.9M83%
Dylan Cozens81$7.10MB+$0.9M83%

Recent form · last 10 games

5 pts · 1 G · 4 A · 17 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs STL

2P

0G 2A

vs ANA

0P

0G 0A

vs TOR

1P

0G 1A

vs NSH

0P

0G 0A

vs CHI

0P

0G 0A

vs EDM

0P

0G 0A

@ ANA

1P

0G 1A

vs VAN

1P

1G 0A

@ NSH

0P

0G 0A

@ CHI

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)358 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 6 of 19 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 27 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 32 blocks · 8 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2012-13Los Angeles Kings102353
2013-14Los Angeles Kings6212172921
2014-15Los Angeles Kings7623264925
2015-16Los Angeles Kings8231275835
2016-17Los Angeles Kings631618346
2017-18Los Angeles Kings822423479
2018-19Los Angeles Kings82132134-16
2019-20Los Angeles Kings58181634-4
2019-20Vancouver Canucks1064103
2020-21Montréal Canadiens522816440
2021-22Montréal Canadiens3791726-8
2021-22Calgary Flames371112233
2022-23Calgary Flames8234397316
2023-24New Jersey Devils61261844-15
2023-24Winnipeg Jets1874119
2024-25San Jose Sharks78302454-21
2025-26San Jose Sharks79193049-12
Career7 teams96930931562454