Regular season

Collin Graf

San Jose Sharks · RW · #51

Top-six playerTwo-Way Force?Scores while suppressing: Def Sup 0.71 plus 46 points

HT: 6'1"
WT: 190 lb
Age: 23
Shoots: R
From: Lincoln, USA

76Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

6565pctl

7575pctl

6262pctl

8383pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.5766pctl

0.2671pctl

0.3165pctl

1.550pctl

+677pctl

135pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

8%79pctl

2.3671pctl

0.3095pctl

Def Suppression?

0.7179pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

5.321pctl

4.047pctl

0.6295pctl

2.1665pctl

0:2930pctl

2:2899pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 50 GP tracked · 14h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

49.4%47pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

54.4%72pctl

O-zone deployment?

51%55pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.7 min72pctl

Support received?

18.2 min23pctl

D-zone deployment?

49%45pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0964pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.3577pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.3967pctl

1.00×57pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.18/gm69pctl

Pressure escape rate?

6.5%18pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1092 EV min

General Offense

5.6049

8.4059

Shot Setups/60?

0.9954

Chance Setups/60?

0.8258

Primary Contributions/60?

6.5950

Rebounds Created/60?

0.6674

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0552

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.9381

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2233

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0569

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0531

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.1034

Rush Offense/60?

6.9236

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.9375

0.8859

0.2267

Deflections/60?

2.0982

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1662

Entries Finished/60?

0.9369

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.6070

Entry → Chance %?

65%57

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.3263

0.6686

0.6633

Retrieval Success %?

50%89

Exit Involvements/60?

0.1180

Exit Success %?

8%78

Forechecking

3.4149

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0580

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.94M

cap hit

$6.30M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$5.4M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Collin Graf	76	Two-Way Force	46 P · 81 GP	$0.94M	$6.30M	A++$5.4M	this player
Trevor Moore	71	Middle-Six Engine	32 P · 69 GP	$4.20M	$4.78M	C+$0.6M	80%
Connor McMichael	74	Middle-Six Engine	46 P · 78 GP	$2.10M	$5.68M	A+$3.6M	80%
Ryan Hartman	77	Two-Way Force	43 P · 76 GP	$4.00M	$6.62M	A+$2.6M	77%
Noah Cates	74	Two-Way Force	47 P · 82 GP	$4.00M	$5.68M	B+$1.7M	75%

Chemistry

Top connection: Macklin Celebrini · 20 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Collin’s goals

Creates for

goals Collin assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

6 pts · 2 G · 4 A · 13 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs ANA

1P

0G 1A

vs ANA 04-01

0G 1A · 1 shots · 19:50 TOI

vs TOR

1P

1G 0A

vs TOR 04-02

1G 0A · 2 shots · 13:53 TOI

vs NSH

1P

0G 1A

vs NSH 04-04

0G 1A · 3 shots · 17:03 TOI

vs CHI

1P

0G 1A

vs CHI 04-06

0G 1A · 1 shots · 20:36 TOI

vs EDM

0P

0G 0A

vs EDM 04-08

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:59 TOI

@ ANA

0P

0G 0A

@ ANA 04-09

0G 0A · 0 shots · 19:29 TOI

vs VAN

0P

0G 0A

vs VAN 04-11

0G 0A · 2 shots · 12:43 TOI

@ NSH

1P

0G 1A

@ NSH 04-13

0G 1A · 1 shots · 16:30 TOI

@ CHI

0P

0G 0A

@ CHI 04-15

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:25 TOI

@ WPG

1P

1G 0A

@ WPG 04-16

1G 0A · 2 shots · 17:33 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)217 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 9 of 21 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 20 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 53 blocks · 18 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2023-24	San Jose Sharks	7	0	2	2	-4
2024-25	San Jose Sharks	33	5	6	11	-4
2025-26	San Jose Sharks	81	21	25	46	6
Career	1 team	121	26	33	59	-2