HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Edmonton Oilers · C · #93
Top-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 56 points and honest two-way play
HT
6'1"
WT
192 lb
Age
33
Shoots
L
From
Burnaby, CAN
Draft
2011 EDM · R1 #1
80Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
6767pctl
Playmaking?
8282pctl
Transition?
6565pctl
Defense?
5353pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.7882pctl
Goals / GP?
0.2874pctl
Assists / GP?
0.5088pctl
Shots / GP?
1.867pctl
Plus/Minus?
-924pctl
PP Points?
2996pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
7%73pctl
ZEIS?
2.5776pctl
PSPL?
0.2690pctl
Def Suppression?
0.4349pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
47.4%36pctl
D-Zone FO %?
40.4%11pctl
Draws / GP
5.038pctl
Take : Give?
0.3348pctl
PP TOI / GP?
3:3294pctl
PK TOI / GP?
1:2161pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 47 GP tracked · 15h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
18.0 min95pctl
Support received?
19.6 min2pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1021 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$5.13M

cap hit

$7.61M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$2.5M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins80$5.13MA+$2.5Mthis player
Vincent Trocheck80$5.63MB+$2.0M89%
Dylan Strome78$5.00MB+$1.9M88%
Kyle Palmieri80$4.75MA+$2.9M86%
Nazem Kadri78$7.00MC$0.1M84%

Recent form · last 10 games

4 pts · 2 G · 2 A · 23 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ VGK

0P

0G 0A

vs ANA

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA

1P

0G 1A

vs CHI

0P

0G 0A

vs VGK

0P

0G 0A

@ UTA

1P

1G 0A

@ SJS

1P

0G 1A

@ LAK

0P

0G 0A

vs COL

0P

0G 0A

vs VAN

1P

1G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)378 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 9 of 20 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 25 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 37 blocks · 6 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2011-12Edmonton Oilers62183452-2
2012-13Edmonton Oilers40420243
2013-14Edmonton Oilers80193756-12
2014-15Edmonton Oilers76243256-12
2015-16Edmonton Oilers55122234-9
2016-17Edmonton Oilers82182543-10
2017-18Edmonton Oilers6224244810
2018-19Edmonton Oilers82284169-13
2019-20Edmonton Oilers652239611
2020-21Edmonton Oilers52161935-4
2021-22Edmonton Oilers631139503
2022-23Edmonton Oilers82376710412
2023-24Edmonton Oilers8018496710
2024-25Edmonton Oilers782029494
2025-26Edmonton Oilers72203656-9
Career1 team1031291513804-28