HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Connor McDavid

Edmonton Oilers · C · #97
EliteDual Threat?48G + 90A - elite at finishing and creating (top ~10% of forwards in both)
HT
6'1"
WT
194 lb
Age
29
Shoots
L
From
Richmond Hill, CAN
Draft
2015 EDM · R1 #1
96Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
9393pctl
Playmaking?
9191pctl
Transition?
8686pctl
Defense?
2121pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
1.68100pctl
Goals / GP?
0.5999pctl
Assists / GP?
1.10100pctl
Shots / GP?
3.799pctl
Plus/Minus?
+1793pctl
PP Points?
54100pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
16.1%100pctl
ZEIS?
3.5491pctl
PSPL?
0.3296pctl
Def Suppression?
0.1617pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
49.5%51pctl
D-Zone FO %?
50.2%56pctl
Draws / GP
11.369pctl
Take : Give?
0.2419pctl
PP TOI / GP?
3:3696pctl
PK TOI / GP?
1:0356pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 50 GP tracked · 19h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
18.2 min99pctl
Support received?
19.5 min3pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1502 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$12.50M

cap hit

$16.12M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$3.6M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Connor McDavid96$12.50MA+$3.6Mthis player
Leon Draisaitl94$14.00MC+$0.5M91%
Nathan MacKinnon96$12.60MA+$3.5M90%
Macklin Celebrini96$0.97MA++$15.1M87%
Connor Bedard89$0.95MA++$9.9M85%

Recent form · last 10 games

20 pts · 8 G · 12 A · 45 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.8 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ VGK

3P

1G 2A

vs ANA

3P

1G 2A

vs SEA

1P

1G 0A

vs CHI

1P

0G 1A

vs VGK

0P

0G 0A

@ UTA

2P

1G 1A

@ SJS

5P

3G 2A

@ LAK

0P

0G 0A

vs COL

1P

1G 0A

vs VAN

4P

0G 4A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)797 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 16 of 48 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 41 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 33 blocks · 15 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2015-16Edmonton Oilers45163248-1
2016-17Edmonton Oilers82307010027
2017-18Edmonton Oilers82416710820
2018-19Edmonton Oilers7841751163
2019-20Edmonton Oilers64346397-6
2020-21Edmonton Oilers56337210521
2021-22Edmonton Oilers80447912328
2022-23Edmonton Oilers82648915322
2023-24Edmonton Oilers763210013235
2024-25Edmonton Oilers67267410020
2025-26Edmonton Oilers82489013817
Career1 team7944098111220186