HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Connor Brown

New Jersey Devils · RW · #16
Middle-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 43 points and honest two-way play
HT
6'0"
WT
184 lb
Age
32
Shoots
R
From
Toronto, CAN
Draft
2012 TOR · R6 #156
72Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
6666pctl
Playmaking?
5353pctl
Transition?
4545pctl
Defense?
5454pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.5767pctl
Goals / GP?
0.2466pctl
Assists / GP?
0.3368pctl
Shots / GP?
1.555pctl
Plus/Minus?
-154pctl
PP Points?
866pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
8%79pctl
ZEIS?
1.5946pctl
PSPL?
0.1042pctl
Def Suppression?
0.4349pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
5.320pctl
Hits / 60?
1.110pctl
Take : Give?
0.3666pctl
Blocks / 60?
1.6846pctl
PP TOI / GP?
1:2949pctl
PK TOI / GP?
1:5192pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 45 GP tracked · 14h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.5 min54pctl
Support received?
18.3 min20pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1066 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$3.00M

cap hit

$5.08M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$2.1M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Connor Brown72$3.00MA+$2.1Mthis player
Gabe Perreault72$0.94MA++$4.1M85%
Erik Haula68$3.15MB+$0.8M84%
Joel Farabee70$5.00MC$0.5M84%
Igor Chernyshov74$0.93MA++$4.7M84%

Chemistry

Top connection: Jack Hughes · 11 goals together

Recent form · last 10 games

7 pts · 4 G · 3 A · 20 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs CHI

1P

1G 0A

@ NYR

1P

1G 0A

vs WSH

1P

0G 1A

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ MTL

1P

1G 0A

vs PHI

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT

1P

0G 1A

@ DET

1P

0G 1A

vs OTT

1P

1G 0A

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)220 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 10 of 18 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 16 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 43 blocks · 13 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2015-16Toronto Maple Leafs7156-2
2016-17Toronto Maple Leafs822016363
2017-18Toronto Maple Leafs821414280
2018-19Toronto Maple Leafs828212911
2019-20Ottawa Senators71162743-6
2020-21Ottawa Senators562114351
2021-22Ottawa Senators64102939-15
2022-23Washington Capitals4000-3
2023-24Edmonton Oilers714812-8
2024-25Edmonton Oilers821317309
2025-26New Jersey Devils75182543-1
Career5 teams676125176301-11