Regular season

Luke Hughes

New Jersey Devils · D · #43

Second-pair DSteady Blueliner?52 blocks across 68 games of regular duty

HT: 6'2"
WT: 198 lb
Age: 22
Shoots: L
From: Manchester, USA
Draft: 2021 NJD · R1 #4

74Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

7676pctl

8686pctl

8888pctl

2222pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.5187pctl

0.0970pctl

0.4388pctl

2.294pctl

-434pctl

1388pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

4.4%48pctl

3.6391pctl

0.2892pctl

Def Suppression?

-0.362pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.765pctl

1.990pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

3.11pctl

0.75pctl

0.2756pctl

2:0185pctl

1:1540pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 41 GP tracked · 16h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

53.2%77pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

53.1%66pctl

O-zone deployment?

56%78pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.4 min47pctl

Support received?

17.3 min49pctl

D-zone deployment?

44%22pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0963pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.4230pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2947pctl

0.98×46pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.22/gm49pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.8%71pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 1342 EV min

General Offense

5.2385

5.7292

Shot Setups/60?

0.8963

Chance Setups/60?

0.7665

Primary Contributions/60?

6.1283

Rebounds Created/60?

0.1823

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0465

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.3644

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.3182

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0468

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0949

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

2.3282

Rush Offense/60?

8.4088

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.4071

0.4077

0.0025

Deflections/60?

0.0442

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0030

Entries Finished/60?

0.5888

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.3691

Entry → Chance %?

62%83

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

3.5385

0.8087

2.7375

Retrieval Success %?

23%73

Exit Involvements/60?

0.1388

Exit Success %?

4%86

Forechecking

0.1819

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0048

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$9.00M

cap hit

$6.07M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

F

Well above market (−$2.9M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Luke Hughes	74	Steady Blueliner	35 P · 68 GP	$9.00M	$6.07M	F−$2.9M	this player
Shea Theodore	75	Steady Blueliner	39 P · 70 GP	$7.42M	$6.40M	D−$1.0M	87%
Dougie Hamilton	72	Offensive QB	39 P · 77 GP	$9.00M	$5.42M	F−$3.6M	84%
Brandon Montour	77	Offensive QB	32 P · 64 GP	$7.14M	$7.09M	C−$0.1M	82%
Vince Dunn	78	Steady Blueliner	44 P · 81 GP	$7.35M	$7.44M	C+$0.1M	80%

Chemistry

Top connection: Nico Hischier · 9 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Luke’s goals

Creates for

goals Luke assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

3 pts · 0 G · 3 A · 19 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ WSH

0P

0G 0A

@ WSH 03-20

0G 0A · 3 shots · 23:51 TOI

@ DAL

1P

0G 1A

@ DAL 03-24

0G 1A · 1 shots · 21:29 TOI

@ NSH

0P

0G 0A

@ NSH 03-26

0G 0A · 3 shots · 20:21 TOI

@ CAR

0P

0G 0A

@ CAR 03-28

0G 0A · 0 shots · 23:21 TOI

vs CHI

1P

0G 1A

vs CHI 03-29

0G 1A · 1 shots · 22:07 TOI

@ NYR

1P

0G 1A

@ NYR 03-31

0G 1A · 4 shots · 25:05 TOI

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 23:22 TOI

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 04-04

0G 0A · 4 shots · 27:43 TOI

@ MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ MTL 04-05

0G 0A · 0 shots · 23:08 TOI

vs PHI

0P

0G 0A

vs PHI 04-07

0G 0A · 2 shots · 24:09 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)457 events shown

The office: the high slot - 2 of 6 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 26 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 50 blocks · 21 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2022-23	New Jersey Devils	2	1	1	2	0
2023-24	New Jersey Devils	82	9	38	47	-25
2024-25	New Jersey Devils	71	7	37	44	-9
2025-26	New Jersey Devils	68	6	29	35	-4
Career	1 team	223	23	105	128	-38