Regular season

Alexander Kerfoot

Nashville Predators · C · #15

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?13 points in 34 games in a supporting role

HT: 5'11"
WT: 185 lb
Age: 31
Shoots: L
From: Vancouver, CAN
Draft: 2012 NJD · R5 #150

62Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

4242pctl

2626pctl

3333pctl

6868pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.3844pctl

0.2157pctl

0.1833pctl

0.810pctl

058pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

3.7%41pctl

1.4942pctl

0.002pctl

Def Suppression?

0.9390pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

51.1%60pctl

D-Zone FO %?

43.9%28pctl

6.646pctl

0.2317pctl

0:2437pctl

1:3168pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 26 GP tracked · 6h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

49.6%50pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

46.4%34pctl

O-zone deployment?

42%21pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.1 min27pctl

Support received?

17.2 min51pctl

D-zone deployment?

58%79pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0644pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.6439pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.095pctl

0.95×25pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.16/gm77pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.2%58pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 370 EV min

General Offense

3.8924

5.8426

Shot Setups/60?

0.3221

Chance Setups/60?

0.1621

Primary Contributions/60?

4.2222

Rebounds Created/60?

0.0020

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1673

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.0020

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.0021

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0040

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0026

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.1439

Rush Offense/60?

7.3045

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.0020

0.0020

0.0025

Deflections/60?

2.2777

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1658

Entries Finished/60?

0.1620

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.1625

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.4922

0.0022

0.4927

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0038

Forechecking

2.7644

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0044

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$3.00M

cap hit

$2.46M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (−$0.5M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Alexander Kerfoot	62	Depth Forward	13 P · 34 GP	$3.00M	$2.46M	C−$0.5M	this player
Marat Khusnutdinov	63	Depth Forward	33 P · 77 GP	$0.93M	$2.68M	B+$1.8M	90%
Dakota Joshua	60	Wrecking Ball	18 P · 55 GP	$3.25M	$2.03M	D−$1.2M	89%
Parker Kelly	63	Depth Forward	35 P · 82 GP	$0.82M	$2.68M	B+$1.9M	88%
Berkly Catton	57	Depth Forward	17 P · 66 GP	$0.94M	$1.46M	C+$0.5M	87%

Chemistry

Top connection: Sean Durzi · 3 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Alexander’s goals

Creates for

goals Alexander assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

6 pts · 4 G · 2 A · 9 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.8 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs WSH

1P

0G 1A

vs WSH 03-26

0G 1A · 2 shots · 13:42 TOI

@ LAK

2P

2G 0A

@ LAK 03-28

2G 0A · 2 shots · 13:55 TOI

@ SEA

0P

0G 0A

@ SEA 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 16:33 TOI

@ VAN

0P

0G 0A

@ VAN 04-04

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:00 TOI

vs EDM

2P

1G 1A

vs EDM 04-07

1G 1A · 1 shots · 17:04 TOI

vs NSH

0P

0G 0A

vs NSH 04-09

0G 0A · 0 shots · 15:47 TOI

vs CAR

0P

0G 0A

vs CAR 04-11

0G 0A · 0 shots · 15:36 TOI

@ CGY

0P

0G 0A

@ CGY 04-12

0G 0A · 0 shots · 15:01 TOI

vs WPG

1P

1G 0A

vs WPG 04-14

1G 0A · 3 shots · 15:54 TOI

vs STL

0P

0G 0A

vs STL 04-16

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:29 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)146 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 3 of 7 goals live there

Defensive floor: 33 blocks · 3 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2017-18	Colorado Avalanche	79	19	24	43	-7
2018-19	Colorado Avalanche	78	15	27	42	-9
2019-20	Toronto Maple Leafs	65	9	19	28	-2
2020-21	Toronto Maple Leafs	56	8	15	23	2
2021-22	Toronto Maple Leafs	82	13	38	51	19
2022-23	Toronto Maple Leafs	82	10	22	32	8
2023-24	Arizona Coyotes	82	13	32	45	-15
2024-25	Utah Hockey Club	81	11	17	28	-5
2025-26	Utah Mammoth	34	7	6	13	0
Career	5 teams	639	105	200	305	-9