Regular season

Dakota Joshua

Toronto Maple Leafs · C · #81

Bottom-six playerWrecking Ball?195 hits (17.4/60) - physically tilts every shift

HT: 6'3"
WT: 218 lb
Age: 30
Shoots: L
From: Dearborn, USA
Draft: 2014 TOR · R5 #128

60Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

4343pctl

2121pctl

2323pctl

7575pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.3336pctl

0.1848pctl

0.1525pctl

0.917pctl

-250pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

5.3%58pctl

1.0523pctl

0.016pctl

Def Suppression?

0.6574pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

0.510pctl

0.4578pctl

0:1632pctl

0:3443pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 37 GP tracked · 8h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

45.2%18pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

52.5%64pctl

O-zone deployment?

32%6pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.8 min12pctl

Support received?

16.9 min63pctl

D-zone deployment?

68%94pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0642pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.3276pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.3762pctl

0.98×44pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.27/gm32pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.2%60pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 628 EV min

General Offense

4.4025

6.7933

Shot Setups/60?

0.3817

Chance Setups/60?

0.3823

Primary Contributions/60?

4.7822

Rebounds Created/60?

0.1016

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0030

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.1918

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.3860

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0038

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0022

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

0.8625

Rush Offense/60?

5.2619

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.4830

0.9664

0.1036

Deflections/60?

1.3450

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0022

Entries Finished/60?

0.4828

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.4852

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.4817

0.1025

0.3818

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0036

Forechecking

11.3782

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0043

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$3.25M

cap hit

$2.03M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium (−$1.2M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Dakota Joshua	60	Wrecking Ball	18 P · 55 GP	$3.25M	$2.03M	D−$1.2M	this player
Alexander Kerfoot	62	Depth Forward	13 P · 34 GP	$3.00M	$2.46M	C−$0.5M	89%
Michael Rasmussen	56	Depth Forward	14 P · 64 GP	$3.20M	$1.30M	D−$1.9M	84%
Marat Khusnutdinov	63	Depth Forward	33 P · 77 GP	$0.93M	$2.68M	B+$1.8M	83%
Colton Sissons	55	Depth Forward	11 P · 66 GP	$2.86M	$1.16M	D−$1.7M	83%

Chemistry

Top connection: Jake McCabe · 6 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Dakota’s goals

Creates for

goals Dakota assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

5 pts · 2 G · 3 A · 12 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs NYI

0P

0G 0A

vs NYI 03-17

0G 0A · 0 shots · 11:26 TOI

vs CAR

1P

1G 0A

vs CAR 03-20

1G 0A · 2 shots · 11:25 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 03-21

0G 0A · 0 shots · 10:47 TOI

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS 03-24

0G 0A · 5 shots · 12:58 TOI

vs NYR

2P

1G 1A

vs NYR 03-25

1G 1A · 1 shots · 14:31 TOI

@ STL

1P

0G 1A

@ STL 03-28

0G 1A · 1 shots · 15:03 TOI

@ ANA

0P

0G 0A

@ ANA 03-30

0G 0A · 0 shots · 14:20 TOI

@ SJS

0P

0G 0A

@ SJS 04-02

0G 0A · 2 shots · 14:29 TOI

@ LAK

1P

0G 1A

@ LAK 04-04

0G 1A · 0 shots · 10:38 TOI

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH 04-08

0G 0A · 1 shots · 8:30 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)99 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 4 of 10 goals live there

Defensive floor: 40 blocks · 3 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2020-21	St. Louis Blues	12	1	0	1	-3
2021-22	St. Louis Blues	30	3	5	8	6
2022-23	Vancouver Canucks	79	11	12	23	-16
2023-24	Vancouver Canucks	63	18	14	32	19
2024-25	Vancouver Canucks	57	7	7	14	-13
2025-26	Toronto Maple Leafs	55	10	8	18	-2
Career	3 teams	296	50	46	96	-9