Regular season

Parker Kelly

Colorado Avalanche · C · #17

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?Energy role: 177 hits (10.2/60)

HT: 6'1"
WT: 185 lb
Age: 27
Shoots: L
From: Camrose, CAN

63Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

5050pctl

2222pctl

4545pctl

6868pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.4349pctl

0.2670pctl

0.1731pctl

1.338pctl

+1894pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

4%43pctl

1.8454pctl

0.016pctl

Def Suppression?

0.6675pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

36.1%4pctl

D-Zone FO %?

33.8%3pctl

2.325pctl

0.3138pctl

0:0317pctl

2:0690pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 50 GP tracked · 10h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

57.7%95pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

56.8%81pctl

O-zone deployment?

40%18pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.8 min11pctl

Support received?

16.3 min85pctl

D-zone deployment?

60%82pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0966pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.9457pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2945pctl

0.87×4pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.14/gm82pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.5%66pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 865 EV min

General Offense

6.3163

8.1856

Shot Setups/60?

0.6931

Chance Setups/60?

0.4223

Primary Contributions/60?

7.0058

Rebounds Created/60?

0.1416

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0761

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.4232

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.3555

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0037

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0019

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.6663

Rush Offense/60?

8.8868

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.7659

0.6233

0.0018

Deflections/60?

2.0880

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1455

Entries Finished/60?

0.4221

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.2119

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.0442

0.0719

0.9760

Retrieval Success %?

7%15

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0034

Exit Success %?

0%31

Forechecking

7.2875

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.82M

cap hit

$2.68M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.9M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Parker Kelly	63	Depth Forward	35 P · 82 GP	$0.82M	$2.68M	B+$1.9M	this player
Jake Evans	63	Depth Forward	24 P · 68 GP	$2.85M	$2.68M	C−$0.2M	89%
Alexander Kerfoot	62	Depth Forward	13 P · 34 GP	$3.00M	$2.46M	C−$0.5M	88%
Alex Steeves	63	Wrecking Ball	16 P · 43 GP	$0.85M	$2.68M	B+$1.8M	85%
Marat Khusnutdinov	63	Depth Forward	33 P · 77 GP	$0.93M	$2.68M	B+$1.8M	82%

Chemistry

Top connection: Jack Drury · 10 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Parker’s goals

Creates for

goals Parker assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

6 pts · 4 G · 2 A · 15 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.8 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs CGY

3P

1G 2A

vs CGY 03-30

1G 2A · 2 shots · 12:07 TOI

vs VAN

1P

1G 0A

vs VAN 04-01

1G 0A · 2 shots · 12:03 TOI

@ DAL

0P

0G 0A

@ DAL 04-04

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:32 TOI

vs STL

1P

1G 0A

vs STL 04-05

1G 0A · 1 shots · 11:35 TOI

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

@ STL 04-07

0G 0A · 1 shots · 9:25 TOI

vs CGY

0P

0G 0A

vs CGY 04-09

0G 0A · 2 shots · 13:40 TOI

vs VGK

0P

0G 0A

vs VGK 04-11

0G 0A · 1 shots · 11:38 TOI

@ EDM

0P

0G 0A

@ EDM 04-13

0G 0A · 2 shots · 13:11 TOI

@ CGY

0P

0G 0A

@ CGY 04-14

0G 0A · 1 shots · 11:13 TOI

vs SEA

1P

1G 0A

vs SEA 04-16

1G 0A · 3 shots · 13:37 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)265 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 9 of 21 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 10 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 77 blocks · 3 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2020-21	Ottawa Senators	1	1	0	1	1
2021-22	Ottawa Senators	41	7	5	12	-4
2022-23	Ottawa Senators	55	1	3	4	-9
2023-24	Ottawa Senators	80	8	10	18	-8
2024-25	Colorado Avalanche	80	8	11	19	-1
2025-26	Colorado Avalanche	82	21	14	35	18
Career	2 teams	339	46	43	89	-3