Regular season

Scott Sabourin

Tampa Bay Lightning · RW · #46

Bottom-six playerWrecking Ball?63 hits (18.3/60) - physically tilts every shift

HT: 6'3"
WT: 205 lb
Age: 34
Shoots: R
From: Orleans, CAN

57Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

1919pctl

4747pctl

1717pctl

3838pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.1914pctl

0.045pctl

0.1528pctl

0.41pctl

+163pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

2.2%21pctl

0.507pctl

0.1667pctl

Def Suppression?

0.3743pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

3.21pctl

18.395pctl

0.102pctl

3.1990pctl

0:001pctl

0:004pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 22 GP tracked · 3h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

44.5%14pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

50.0%52pctl

O-zone deployment?

39%15pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

15.8 min0pctl

Support received?

15.3 min99pctl

D-zone deployment?

61%85pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0857pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.4028pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2028pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.12/gm88pctl

Pressure escape rate?

3.8%1pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 207 EV min

General Offense

3.1928

5.8131

Shot Setups/60?

1.1660

Chance Setups/60?

0.8757

Primary Contributions/60?

4.3529

Rebounds Created/60?

0.5860

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.2972

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.2933

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.5869

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0042

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.5873

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.7460

Rush Offense/60?

6.3937

Shots off HD Setups/60?

1.1670

1.1665

0.2966

Deflections/60?

1.4552

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0032

Entries Finished/60?

0.2930

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.0027

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.2927

0.0029

0.2929

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0041

Forechecking

10.7470

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0045

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.78M

cap hit

$1.46M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.7M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Scott Sabourin	57	Wrecking Ball	5 P · 26 GP	$0.78M	$1.46M	C+$0.7M	this player
Ross Johnston	53	Wrecking Ball	14 P · 62 GP	$1.10M	$0.92M	C−$0.2M	81%
Zach Aston-Reese	54	Wrecking Ball	5 P · 27 GP	$0.78M	$1.03M	C+$0.3M	81%
Keegan Kolesar	54	Wrecking Ball	17 P · 82 GP	$2.50M	$1.03M	D−$1.5M	81%
Joel Kiviranta	54	Depth Forward	9 P · 51 GP	$1.25M	$1.03M	C−$0.2M	80%

Chemistry

Finishes from

assisters on Scott’s goals

Creates for

goals Scott assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

1 pts · 0 G · 1 A · 3 shots in last 10Steady(+0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF 03-08

0G 0A · 0 shots · 4:17 TOI

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

vs DET 03-12

0G 0A · 1 shots · 9:47 TOI

vs MIN

0P

0G 0A

vs MIN 03-24

0G 0A · 0 shots · 9:11 TOI

vs OTT

0P

0G 0A

vs OTT 03-28

0G 0A · 1 shots · 5:50 TOI

vs NSH

0P

0G 0A

vs NSH 03-29

0G 0A · 0 shots · 5:54 TOI

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 03-31

0G 0A · 0 shots · 9:05 TOI

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF 04-06

0G 0A · 0 shots · 5:58 TOI

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS 04-11

0G 0A · 0 shots · 9:33 TOI

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

vs DET 04-13

0G 0A · 0 shots · 8:56 TOI

vs NYR

1P

0G 1A

vs NYR 04-15

0G 1A · 1 shots · 11:27 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)35 events shown

Defensive floor: 11 blocks · 0 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2019-20	Ottawa Senators	35	2	4	6	-6
2020-21	Toronto Maple Leafs	1	0	0	0	0
2021-22	Ottawa Senators	7	0	2	2	-2
2023-24	San Jose Sharks	3	0	0	0	0
2024-25	San Jose Sharks	1	0	0	0	-2
2025-26	Tampa Bay Lightning	26	1	4	5	1
Career	4 teams	73	3	10	13	-9