Regular season

Brandon Hagel

Tampa Bay Lightning · LW · #38

EliteDual Threat?36G + 38A - elite at finishing and creating (top ~10% of forwards in both)

HT: 6'2"
WT: 186 lb
Age: 27
Shoots: L
From: Saskatoon, CAN
Draft: 2016 BUF · R6 #159

90Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

9191pctl

8585pctl

9292pctl

6464pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

1.0494pctl

0.5197pctl

0.5490pctl

3.095pctl

+3499pctl

1274pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

14.1%98pctl

5.4799pctl

0.2993pctl

Def Suppression?

0.4654pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

9.291pctl

1.820pctl

0.4782pctl

1.6241pctl

2:1169pctl

2:1497pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 41 GP tracked · 14h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

61.9%100pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

63.8%94pctl

O-zone deployment?

56%76pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.9 min89pctl

Support received?

18.7 min11pctl

D-zone deployment?

44%24pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1180pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

2.2596pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.6494pctl

1.02×70pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.24/gm40pctl

Pressure escape rate?

9.9%87pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1089 EV min

General Offense

8.0586

13.8391

Shot Setups/60?

1.7689

Chance Setups/60?

1.2787

Primary Contributions/60?

9.8188

Rebounds Created/60?

0.5057

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.2889

Center-Lane Setups/60?

1.3290

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.5582

Deflection Setups/60?

0.1789

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.3989

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

2.0982

Rush Offense/60?

13.4590

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.9475

1.2180

0.1754

Deflections/60?

1.6566

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.2879

Entries Finished/60?

1.8291

Entries w/ Chance/60?

1.1690

Entry → Chance %?

64%53

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.2155

0.2851

0.9457

Retrieval Success %?

23%43

Exit Involvements/60?

0.1179

Exit Success %?

9%80

Forechecking

2.0934

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$6.50M

cap hit

$11.21M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$4.7M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Brandon Hagel	90	Dual Threat	74 P · 71 GP	$6.50M	$11.21M	A++$4.7M	this player
William Nylander	91	Top-Six Threat	79 P · 65 GP	$11.50M	$12.02M	C+$0.5M	86%
Dylan Holloway	85	Top-Six Threat	51 P · 59 GP	$2.29M	$9.36M	A++$7.1M	83%
Alex DeBrincat	91	Dual Threat	85 P · 82 GP	$7.88M	$12.02M	A++$4.1M	83%
Bryan Rust	86	Dual Threat	65 P · 72 GP	$5.13M	$9.72M	A++$4.6M	78%

Chemistry

Top connection: Nikita Kucherov · 31 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Brandon’s goals

Creates for

goals Brandon assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

11 pts · 5 G · 6 A · 37 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.6 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ VAN

2P

1G 1A

@ VAN 03-19

1G 1A · 4 shots · 20:01 TOI

@ EDM

2P

0G 2A

@ EDM 03-21

0G 2A · 2 shots · 20:47 TOI

@ CGY

0P

0G 0A

@ CGY 03-22

0G 0A · 2 shots · 19:13 TOI

vs MIN

2P

1G 1A

vs MIN 03-24

1G 1A · 2 shots · 18:49 TOI

vs SEA

1P

0G 1A

vs SEA 03-26

0G 1A · 5 shots · 22:09 TOI

vs OTT

2P

1G 1A

vs OTT 03-28

1G 1A · 3 shots · 22:17 TOI

vs NSH

1P

1G 0A

vs NSH 03-29

1G 0A · 5 shots · 22:20 TOI

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 03-31

0G 0A · 5 shots · 22:21 TOI

@ BOS

1P

1G 0A

@ BOS 04-11

1G 0A · 4 shots · 18:46 TOI

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs NYR 04-15

0G 0A · 5 shots · 20:16 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)463 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 16 of 36 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 44 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 45 blocks · 12 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2019-20	Chicago Blackhawks	1	0	0	0	0
2020-21	Chicago Blackhawks	52	9	15	24	-7
2021-22	Chicago Blackhawks	55	21	16	37	-14
2021-22	Tampa Bay Lightning	22	4	3	7	-4
2022-23	Tampa Bay Lightning	81	30	34	64	23
2023-24	Tampa Bay Lightning	82	26	49	75	1
2024-25	Tampa Bay Lightning	82	35	55	90	33
2025-26	Tampa Bay Lightning	71	36	38	74	34
Career	2 teams	446	161	210	371	66