Regular season

Keegan Kolesar

Detroit Red Wings · RW · #55

Depth playerWrecking Ball?270 hits (17.1/60) - physically tilts every shift

HT: 6'2"
WT: 216 lb
Age: 29
Shoots: R
From: Brandon, CAN
Draft: 2015 CBJ · R3 #69

54Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

1616pctl

3636pctl

1616pctl

5252pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.2115pctl

0.0716pctl

0.1323pctl

0.89pctl

-1414pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

2.6%26pctl

1.0724pctl

0.1251pctl

Def Suppression?

0.5564pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

4.27pctl

17.194pctl

0.156pctl

2.7283pctl

0:0416pctl

0:3564pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 51 GP tracked · 10h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

47.1%28pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

33.3%4pctl

O-zone deployment?

36%10pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.8 min11pctl

Support received?

16.9 min62pctl

D-zone deployment?

64%90pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0645pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.7948pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2334pctl

0.92×16pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.19/gm63pctl

Pressure escape rate?

7.8%50pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 893 EV min

General Offense

4.4424

5.7118

Shot Setups/60?

0.8141

Chance Setups/60?

0.7450

Primary Contributions/60?

5.2424

Rebounds Created/60?

0.4752

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0760

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.6762

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2030

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0775

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0738

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

0.8723

Rush Offense/60?

6.7934

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.6748

0.6738

0.2063

Deflections/60?

1.0130

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0019

Entries Finished/60?

0.4725

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.2018

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.4714

0.0719

0.4016

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0034

Forechecking

11.2285

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$2.50M

cap hit

$1.03M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium (−$1.5M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Keegan Kolesar	54	Wrecking Ball	17 P · 82 GP	$2.50M	$1.03M	D−$1.5M	this player
Jordan Greenway	53	Depth Forward	6 P · 40 GP	$4.00M	$0.92M	F−$3.1M	93%
Zach Aston-Reese	54	Wrecking Ball	5 P · 27 GP	$0.78M	$1.03M	C+$0.3M	90%
Joel Kiviranta	54	Depth Forward	9 P · 51 GP	$1.25M	$1.03M	C−$0.2M	89%
Landon Slaggert	54	Depth Forward	7 P · 53 GP	$0.90M	$1.03M	C+$0.1M	88%

Chemistry

Top connection: Colton Sissons · 4 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Keegan’s goals

Creates for

goals Keegan assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

0 pts · 0 G · 0 A · 5 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs EDM

0P

0G 0A

vs EDM 03-26

0G 0A · 0 shots · 8:47 TOI

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH 03-28

0G 0A · 0 shots · 10:48 TOI

vs VAN

0P

0G 0A

vs VAN 03-30

0G 0A · 1 shots · 10:16 TOI

vs CGY

0P

0G 0A

vs CGY 04-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:10 TOI

@ EDM

0P

0G 0A

@ EDM 04-04

0G 0A · 1 shots · 10:51 TOI

@ VAN

0P

0G 0A

@ VAN 04-07

0G 0A · 1 shots · 12:07 TOI

@ SEA

0P

0G 0A

@ SEA 04-09

0G 0A · 0 shots · 12:42 TOI

@ COL

0P

0G 0A

@ COL 04-11

0G 0A · 1 shots · 10:12 TOI

vs WPG

0P

0G 0A

vs WPG 04-13

0G 0A · 1 shots · 11:19 TOI

vs SEA

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA 04-15

0G 0A · 0 shots · 12:07 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)141 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 4 of 6 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 12 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 51 blocks · 2 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2019-20	Vegas Golden Knights	1	0	0	0	0
2020-21	Vegas Golden Knights	44	3	10	13	-4
2021-22	Vegas Golden Knights	77	7	17	24	-6
2022-23	Vegas Golden Knights	74	8	10	18	6
2023-24	Vegas Golden Knights	79	8	10	18	-8
2024-25	Vegas Golden Knights	82	12	18	30	3
2025-26	Vegas Golden Knights	82	6	11	17	-14
Career	1 team	439	44	76	120	-23