Regular season

Nick Paul

Toronto Maple Leafs · LW · #20

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?15 points in 51 games in a supporting role

HT: 6'4"
WT: 234 lb
Age: 31
Shoots: L
From: Mississauga, CAN
Draft: 2013 DAL · R4 #101

61Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

4343pctl

3737pctl

4545pctl

4040pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.2933pctl

0.1434pctl

0.1629pctl

1.342pctl

-1512pctl

346pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

5.4%59pctl

1.7651pctl

0.1042pctl

Def Suppression?

0.3236pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

5.833pctl

6.468pctl

0.2948pctl

1.8958pctl

1:1343pctl

0:2460pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 34 GP tracked · 7h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

50.4%56pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

30.3%3pctl

O-zone deployment?

47%37pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.8 min10pctl

Support received?

16.7 min71pctl

D-zone deployment?

53%63pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0856pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.1669pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.3966pctl

0.94×21pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.14/gm84pctl

Pressure escape rate?

6.4%17pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 615 EV min

General Offense

5.5649

7.4145

Shot Setups/60?

1.0760

Chance Setups/60?

0.8862

Primary Contributions/60?

6.6351

Rebounds Created/60?

0.3941

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.2080

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.8874

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2031

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0038

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0022

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.2744

Rush Offense/60?

8.2959

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.9874

1.0769

0.2974

Deflections/60?

1.7668

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.3982

Entries Finished/60?

0.7855

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.3941

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.0746

0.2038

0.8853

Retrieval Success %?

18%33

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0036

Exit Success %?

0%33

Forechecking

4.2957

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.1082

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$3.15M

cap hit

$2.24M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium (−$0.9M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Nick Paul	61	Depth Forward	15 P · 51 GP	$3.15M	$2.24M	D−$0.9M	this player
Nicholas Robertson	65	Depth Forward	32 P · 78 GP	$1.82M	$3.17M	B+$1.3M	88%
Danila Yurov	61	Depth Forward	27 P · 73 GP	$0.95M	$2.24M	B+$1.3M	88%
Alexandre Texier	64	Depth Forward	21 P · 51 GP	$2.10M	$2.92M	B+$0.8M	88%
Zachary Bolduc	64	Depth Forward	30 P · 78 GP	$0.86M	$2.92M	A+$2.1M	87%

Chemistry

Top connection: Nikita Kucherov · 3 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Nick’s goals

Creates for

goals Nick assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

2 pts · 1 G · 1 A · 16 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs NSH

0P

0G 0A

vs NSH 03-29

0G 0A · 1 shots · 11:36 TOI

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 03-31

0G 0A · 0 shots · 10:47 TOI

vs PIT

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 11:00 TOI

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs BOS 04-04

0G 0A · 4 shots · 9:08 TOI

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF 04-06

0G 0A · 2 shots · 18:05 TOI

@ OTT

2P

1G 1A

@ OTT 04-07

1G 1A · 2 shots · 13:27 TOI

@ MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ MTL 04-09

0G 0A · 0 shots · 7:38 TOI

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS 04-11

0G 0A · 1 shots · 13:58 TOI

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

vs DET 04-13

0G 0A · 2 shots · 15:00 TOI

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs NYR 04-15

0G 0A · 3 shots · 21:47 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)144 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 4 of 7 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 13 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 27 blocks · 2 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2015-16	Ottawa Senators	24	2	3	5	-3
2016-17	Ottawa Senators	1	0	0	0	-2
2017-18	Ottawa Senators	11	1	0	1	-4
2018-19	Ottawa Senators	20	1	1	2	-10
2019-20	Ottawa Senators	56	9	11	20	0
2020-21	Ottawa Senators	56	5	15	20	5
2021-22	Ottawa Senators	59	11	7	18	-18
2021-22	Tampa Bay Lightning	21	5	9	14	4
2022-23	Tampa Bay Lightning	80	17	15	32	11
2023-24	Tampa Bay Lightning	82	24	22	46	-16
2024-25	Tampa Bay Lightning	76	22	19	41	13
2025-26	Tampa Bay Lightning	51	7	8	15	-15
Career	2 teams	537	104	110	214	-35