HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Brandon Carlo

St. Louis Blues · D · #25
Third-pair DDepth Defenseman?98 blocks in 55 games of hard minutes
HT
6'5"
WT
227 lb
Age
29
Shoots
R
From
Colorado Springs, USA
Draft
2015 BOS · R2 #37
62Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
3535pctl
Playmaking?
2020pctl
Transition?
4343pctl
Defense?
5252pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.1310pctl
Goals / GP?
0.006pctl
Assists / GP?
0.1319pctl
Shots / GP?
1.256pctl
Plus/Minus?
+462pctl
PP Points?
027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
2.4%24pctl
ZEIS?
0.8015pctl
PSPL?
0.028pctl
Def Suppression?
0.7279pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP
Blocks / GP?
1.7885pctl
Blocks / 60?
5.5285pctl
Hits / 60?
3.762pctl
Take : Give?
0.136pctl
PP TOI / GP?
0:0216pctl
PK TOI / GP?
2:5192pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 31 GP tracked · 10h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.8 min83pctl
Support received?
16.9 min60pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 907 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$4.10M

cap hit

$2.59M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium ($1.5M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Brandon Carlo62$4.10MD$1.5Mthis player
Tyler Myers64$3.00MC+$0.1M89%
Erik Gudbranson63$4.00MD$1.2M88%
Ryan Lindgren60$4.50MD$2.4M87%
Cody Ceci64$4.50MD$1.4M87%

Chemistry

Top connection: William Nylander · 3 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Brandon’s goals

No credited connections yet.

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

1 pts · 0 G · 1 A · 13 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs NYI

0P

0G 0A

vs CAR

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT

1P

0G 1A

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

@ ANA

0P

0G 0A

@ SJS

0P

0G 0A

@ LAK

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)247 events shown

Playmaking gravity: 12 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 98 blocks · 4 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2016-17Boston Bruins82610169
2017-18Boston Bruins7606610
2018-19Boston Bruins72281022
2019-20Boston Bruins674151916
2020-21Boston Bruins273141
2021-22Boston Bruins7969152
2022-23Boston Bruins753131644
2023-24Boston Bruins764101423
2024-25Boston Bruins631892
2024-25Toronto Maple Leafs200334
2025-26Toronto Maple Leafs550774
Career2 teams6922990119137