Regular season

William Nylander

Toronto Maple Leafs · RW · #88

EliteTop-Six Threat?79 points in 65 games with strong all-around impact

HT: 6'0"
WT: 200 lb
Age: 30
Shoots: R
From: Calgary, CAN
Draft: 2014 TOR · R1 #8

91Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

8383pctl

8686pctl

8282pctl

6060pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

1.2297pctl

0.4695pctl

0.7597pctl

2.484pctl

-1414pctl

2289pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

11%92pctl

3.6391pctl

0.2892pctl

Def Suppression?

0.4451pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

7.467pctl

0.62pctl

0.4681pctl

1.2324pctl

2:4879pctl

0:0551pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 44 GP tracked · 14h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

48.5%40pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

47.5%41pctl

O-zone deployment?

61%91pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.8 min77pctl

Support received?

18.3 min22pctl

D-zone deployment?

39%9pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0532pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.3074pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.3458pctl

1.03×73pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.23/gm43pctl

Pressure escape rate?

9.8%86pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1074 EV min

General Offense

5.8154

7.4344

Shot Setups/60?

0.7837

Chance Setups/60?

0.6741

Primary Contributions/60?

6.5950

Rebounds Created/60?

0.3940

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0027

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.3928

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.5078

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0670

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0631

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.5659

Rush Offense/60?

7.8853

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.3416

0.4516

0.1754

Deflections/60?

0.8924

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.4588

Entries Finished/60?

0.9570

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.6170

Entry → Chance %?

65%57

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.2860

0.5682

0.7339

Retrieval Success %?

43%83

Exit Involvements/60?

0.1787

Exit Success %?

13%88

Forechecking

0.8412

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$11.50M

cap hit

$12.02M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.5M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
William Nylander	91	Top-Six Threat	79 P · 65 GP	$11.50M	$12.02M	C+$0.5M	this player
Bryan Rust	86	Dual Threat	65 P · 72 GP	$5.13M	$9.72M	A++$4.6M	86%
Alex DeBrincat	91	Dual Threat	85 P · 82 GP	$7.88M	$12.02M	A++$4.1M	86%
Brandon Hagel	90	Dual Threat	74 P · 71 GP	$6.50M	$11.21M	A++$4.7M	86%
Kirill Marchenko	85	Top-Six Threat	67 P · 76 GP	$3.85M	$9.36M	A++$5.5M	86%

Chemistry

Top connection: John Tavares · 22 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on William’s goals

Creates for

goals William assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

12 pts · 5 G · 7 A · 29 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs NYR 03-25

0G 0A · 1 shots · 20:35 TOI

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

@ STL 03-28

0G 0A · 0 shots · 20:03 TOI

@ ANA

4P

1G 3A

@ ANA 03-30

1G 3A · 8 shots · 23:35 TOI

@ SJS

1P

0G 1A

@ SJS 04-02

0G 1A · 3 shots · 18:45 TOI

@ LAK

1P

0G 1A

@ LAK 04-04

0G 1A · 3 shots · 23:24 TOI

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH 04-08

0G 0A · 1 shots · 20:32 TOI

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI 04-09

0G 0A · 2 shots · 21:53 TOI

vs FLA

2P

2G 0A

vs FLA 04-11

2G 0A · 5 shots · 19:48 TOI

vs DAL

3P

1G 2A

vs DAL 04-13

1G 2A · 3 shots · 22:50 TOI

@ OTT

1P

1G 0A

@ OTT 04-15

1G 0A · 3 shots · 20:28 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)310 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 11 of 30 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 25 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 26 blocks · 14 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2015-16	Toronto Maple Leafs	22	6	7	13	1
2016-17	Toronto Maple Leafs	81	22	39	61	-3
2017-18	Toronto Maple Leafs	82	20	41	61	20
2018-19	Toronto Maple Leafs	54	7	20	27	-4
2019-20	Toronto Maple Leafs	68	31	28	59	-2
2020-21	Toronto Maple Leafs	51	17	25	42	10
2021-22	Toronto Maple Leafs	81	34	46	80	-9
2022-23	Toronto Maple Leafs	82	40	47	87	10
2023-24	Toronto Maple Leafs	82	40	58	98	1
2024-25	Toronto Maple Leafs	82	45	39	84	10
2025-26	Toronto Maple Leafs	65	30	49	79	-14
Career	1 team	750	292	399	691	20