Regular season

Matthew Tkachuk

Florida Panthers · LW · #19

First-line playerTop-Six Threat?34 points in 31 games with strong all-around impact

HT: 6'2"
WT: 202 lb
Age: 28
Shoots: L
From: Scottsdale, USA
Draft: 2016 CGY · R1 #6

87Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

8282pctl

8484pctl

8484pctl

1919pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

1.1096pctl

0.4291pctl

0.6896pctl

2.894pctl

-634pctl

1376pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

13.8%98pctl

4.7197pctl

0.44100pctl

Def Suppression?

-0.055pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

9.392pctl

3.139pctl

0.2120pctl

0.743pctl

3:3595pctl

0:1960pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 22 GP tracked · 7h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

57.4%94pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

44.8%29pctl

O-zone deployment?

53%62pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.8 min77pctl

Support received?

18.5 min15pctl

D-zone deployment?

47%38pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1998pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

3.57100pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

1.00100pctl

1.02×70pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.23/gm48pctl

Pressure escape rate?

12.0%99pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 447 EV min

General Offense

6.4562

9.6870

Shot Setups/60?

1.4878

Chance Setups/60?

1.0872

Primary Contributions/60?

7.9367

Rebounds Created/60?

0.6770

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1371

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.9475

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.1325

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0039

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0025

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

2.2879

Rush Offense/60?

8.4760

Shots off HD Setups/60?

1.0876

1.0868

0.6783

Deflections/60?

2.5580

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0025

Entries Finished/60?

0.2721

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.2730

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.2154

0.1332

1.0865

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0037

Forechecking

3.0947

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0043

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$9.50M

cap hit

$10.09M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.6M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Matthew Tkachuk	87	Top-Six Threat	34 P · 31 GP	$9.50M	$10.09M	C+$0.6M	this player
Brad Marchand	87	Dual Threat	54 P · 52 GP	$5.25M	$10.09M	A++$4.8M	93%
Clayton Keller	88	Playmaker	88 P · 82 GP	$7.15M	$10.46M	A+$3.3M	89%
Kevin Fiala	80	Middle-Six Engine	40 P · 56 GP	$7.88M	$7.61M	C−$0.3M	87%
Artemi Panarin	86	Top-Six Threat	84 P · 78 GP	$11.64M	$9.72M	D−$1.9M	86%

Chemistry

Top connection: Sam Bennett · 11 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Matthew’s goals

Creates for

goals Matthew assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

11 pts · 4 G · 7 A · 25 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.6 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ CGY

0P

0G 0A

@ CGY 03-20

0G 0A · 3 shots · 15:40 TOI

vs SEA

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA 03-24

0G 0A · 1 shots · 19:59 TOI

vs MIN

2P

1G 1A

vs MIN 03-26

1G 1A · 4 shots · 18:19 TOI

@ NYI

2P

2G 0A

@ NYI 03-28

2G 0A · 4 shots · 23:43 TOI

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

@ NYR 03-29

0G 0A · 3 shots · 19:03 TOI

vs OTT

4P

1G 3A

vs OTT 03-31

1G 3A · 5 shots · 17:13 TOI

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs BOS 04-02

0G 0A · 2 shots · 18:17 TOI

@ PIT

1P

0G 1A

@ PIT 04-04

0G 1A · 0 shots · 15:41 TOI

@ PIT

0P

0G 0A

@ PIT 04-05

0G 0A · 3 shots · 21:09 TOI

vs DET

2P

0G 2A

vs DET 04-15

0G 2A · 0 shots · 13:19 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)193 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 6 of 13 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 14 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2016-17	Calgary Flames	76	13	35	48	14
2017-18	Calgary Flames	68	24	25	49	-1
2018-19	Calgary Flames	80	34	43	77	14
2019-20	Calgary Flames	69	23	38	61	-5
2020-21	Calgary Flames	56	16	27	43	6
2021-22	Calgary Flames	82	42	62	104	57
2022-23	Florida Panthers	79	40	69	109	29
2023-24	Florida Panthers	80	26	62	88	19
2024-25	Florida Panthers	52	22	35	57	-3
2025-26	Florida Panthers	31	13	21	34	-6
Career	2 teams	673	253	417	670	124