Regular season

Mario Ferraro

Winnipeg Jets · D · #38

Third-pair DSteady Blueliner?150 blocks across 82 games of regular duty

HT: 5'11"
WT: 200 lb
Age: 27
Shoots: L
From: Toronto, CAN
Draft: 2017 SJS · R2 #49

73Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

5353pctl

5050pctl

4343pctl

8181pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.2854pctl

0.0968pctl

0.2044pctl

1.153pctl

-144pctl

027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

1.8%16pctl

1.1827pctl

0.1147pctl

Def Suppression?

1.1396pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

1.8386pctl

5.2177pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

8.292pctl

4.876pctl

0.4188pctl

0:0330pctl

3:2399pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 52 GP tracked · 18h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

44.5%14pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

47.6%42pctl

O-zone deployment?

38%13pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.6 min64pctl

Support received?

16.4 min79pctl

D-zone deployment?

62%87pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0535pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.092pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.1722pctl

1.04×82pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.30/gm23pctl

Pressure escape rate?

5.7%9pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 1443 EV min

General Offense

3.6655

2.2918

Shot Setups/60?

0.8761

Chance Setups/60?

0.7158

Primary Contributions/60?

4.5354

Rebounds Created/60?

0.3352

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0030

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.2932

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.0831

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0034

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0847

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.5039

Rush Offense/60?

5.2843

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.1726

0.2553

0.0446

Deflections/60?

0.1778

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0030

Entries Finished/60?

0.2954

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.0844

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

2.7452

0.6779

2.0844

Retrieval Success %?

24%80

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0036

Exit Success %?

0%36

Forechecking

0.5468

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0048

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$3.25M

cap hit

$5.74M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$2.5M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Mario Ferraro	73	Steady Blueliner	23 P · 82 GP	$3.25M	$5.74M	A+$2.5M	this player
Martin Fehervary	73	Steady Blueliner	27 P · 81 GP	$2.67M	$5.74M	A+$3.1M	91%
Colton Parayko	75	Shutdown Anchor	18 P · 77 GP	$6.50M	$6.40M	C−$0.1M	90%
Jake McCabe	74	Steady Blueliner	25 P · 80 GP	$4.49M	$6.07M	B+$1.6M	90%
Jaccob Slavin	72	Steady Blueliner	8 P · 39 GP	$6.40M	$5.42M	D−$1.0M	90%

Chemistry

Top connection: Alexander Wennberg · 5 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Mario’s goals

Creates for

goals Mario assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

2 pts · 1 G · 1 A · 11 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs ANA

0P

0G 0A

vs ANA 04-01

0G 0A · 0 shots · 20:48 TOI

vs TOR

0P

0G 0A

vs TOR 04-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 20:44 TOI

vs NSH

0P

0G 0A

vs NSH 04-04

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:34 TOI

vs CHI

0P

0G 0A

vs CHI 04-06

0G 0A · 2 shots · 21:51 TOI

vs EDM

0P

0G 0A

vs EDM 04-08

0G 0A · 1 shots · 23:41 TOI

@ ANA

0P

0G 0A

@ ANA 04-09

0G 0A · 1 shots · 23:33 TOI

vs VAN

0P

0G 0A

vs VAN 04-11

0G 0A · 2 shots · 24:27 TOI

@ NSH

0P

0G 0A

@ NSH 04-13

0G 0A · 1 shots · 22:42 TOI

@ CHI

1P

1G 0A

@ CHI 04-15

1G 0A · 3 shots · 18:44 TOI

@ WPG

1P

0G 1A

@ WPG 04-16

0G 1A · 1 shots · 21:23 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)393 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 2 of 7 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 21 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 150 blocks · 22 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2019-20	San Jose Sharks	61	2	9	11	-15
2020-21	San Jose Sharks	56	1	16	17	-6
2021-22	San Jose Sharks	63	2	12	14	-5
2022-23	San Jose Sharks	72	4	7	11	-31
2023-24	San Jose Sharks	78	3	18	21	-38
2024-25	San Jose Sharks	78	5	12	17	-25
2025-26	San Jose Sharks	82	7	16	23	-1
Career	1 team	490	24	90	114	-121