Regular season

Noah Cates

Philadelphia Flyers · LW · #27

Middle-six playerTwo-Way Force?Scores while suppressing: Def Sup 0.71 plus 47 points

HT: 6'2"
WT: 194 lb
Age: 27
Shoots: L
From: Stillwater, USA
Draft: 2017 PHI · R5 #137

74Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

6363pctl

6262pctl

6060pctl

8484pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.5767pctl

0.2260pctl

0.3570pctl

1.658pctl

+2698pctl

968pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

8.2%80pctl

2.2869pctl

0.1563pctl

Def Suppression?

0.7179pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

5.935pctl

4.654pctl

0.6897pctl

2.2971pctl

2:0365pctl

1:4188pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 52 GP tracked · 14h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

52.1%69pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

59.1%87pctl

O-zone deployment?

55%74pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.5 min55pctl

Support received?

17.7 min37pctl

D-zone deployment?

45%26pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0963pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.8692pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.5386pctl

1.01×65pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.19/gm65pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.0%55pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1025 EV min

General Offense

5.3843

7.0236

Shot Setups/60?

0.6427

Chance Setups/60?

0.5327

Primary Contributions/60?

6.0338

Rebounds Created/60?

0.1818

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0027

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.2921

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2335

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1250

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.4653

Rush Offense/60?

5.9723

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.7659

1.0068

0.1241

Deflections/60?

1.2341

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.2981

Entries Finished/60?

0.4723

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.2320

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.8227

0.3562

0.4718

Retrieval Success %?

43%82

Exit Involvements/60?

0.1281

Exit Success %?

14%89

Forechecking

4.5161

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$4.00M

cap hit

$5.68M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.7M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Noah Cates	74	Two-Way Force	47 P · 82 GP	$4.00M	$5.68M	B+$1.7M	this player
Connor McMichael	74	Middle-Six Engine	46 P · 78 GP	$2.10M	$5.68M	A+$3.6M	89%
Tyson Foerster	73	Middle-Six Engine	17 P · 29 GP	$3.75M	$5.37M	B+$1.6M	88%
Gabriel Landeskog	74	Middle-Six Engine	35 P · 60 GP	$7.00M	$5.68M	D−$1.3M	86%
Zach Benson	73	Middle-Six Engine	43 P · 65 GP	$0.95M	$5.37M	A++$4.4M	86%

Chemistry

Top connection: Bobby Brink · 13 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Noah’s goals

Creates for

goals Noah assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

6 pts · 1 G · 5 A · 19 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs DAL

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL 03-29

0G 0A · 1 shots · 16:45 TOI

@ WSH

1P

0G 1A

@ WSH 03-31

0G 1A · 1 shots · 18:19 TOI

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

vs DET 04-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 15:01 TOI

@ NYI

1P

0G 1A

@ NYI 04-03

0G 1A · 1 shots · 16:06 TOI

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs BOS 04-05

0G 0A · 4 shots · 13:35 TOI

@ NJD

0P

0G 0A

@ NJD 04-07

0G 0A · 3 shots · 13:25 TOI

@ DET

0P

0G 0A

@ DET 04-09

0G 0A · 2 shots · 16:06 TOI

@ WPG

3P

1G 2A

@ WPG 04-11

1G 2A · 2 shots · 13:33 TOI

vs CAR

1P

0G 1A

vs CAR 04-13

0G 1A · 3 shots · 15:22 TOI

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 04-14

0G 0A · 2 shots · 17:50 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)239 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 10 of 18 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 17 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 63 blocks · 7 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2021-22	Philadelphia Flyers	16	5	4	9	4
2022-23	Philadelphia Flyers	82	13	25	38	3
2023-24	Philadelphia Flyers	59	6	12	18	-8
2024-25	Philadelphia Flyers	78	16	21	37	3
2025-26	Philadelphia Flyers	82	18	29	47	26
Career	1 team	317	58	91	149	28