Regular season

Connor McMichael

St. Louis Blues · LW · #77

Middle-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 46 points and honest two-way play

HT: 6'0"
WT: 180 lb
Age: 25
Shoots: L
From: Ajax, CAN
Draft: 2019 WSH · R1 #25

74Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

5757pctl

6767pctl

6262pctl

7979pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.5968pctl

0.1848pctl

0.4178pctl

1.867pctl

+882pctl

555pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

7.5%76pctl

2.4373pctl

0.1667pctl

Def Suppression?

0.6473pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

6.545pctl

2.023pctl

0.5288pctl

2.0463pctl

1:3754pctl

2:0395pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 47 GP tracked · 13h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

45.4%19pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

50.8%56pctl

O-zone deployment?

48%41pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.6 min68pctl

Support received?

18.0 min29pctl

D-zone deployment?

52%59pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1489pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.3979pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.5183pctl

1.00×61pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.34/gm14pctl

Pressure escape rate?

6.7%22pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1033 EV min

General Offense

6.1060

8.1356

Shot Setups/60?

0.8140

Chance Setups/60?

0.6439

Primary Contributions/60?

6.9156

Rebounds Created/60?

0.4650

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1272

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.6460

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.1218

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1765

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

0.9926

Rush Offense/60?

7.8452

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.5837

1.0571

0.2369

Deflections/60?

1.2844

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.2981

Entries Finished/60?

0.7047

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.5260

Entry → Chance %?

75%74

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.1048

0.4169

0.7036

Retrieval Success %?

37%76

Exit Involvements/60?

0.1787

Exit Success %?

16%89

Forechecking

2.5040

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$2.10M

cap hit

$5.68M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$3.6M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Connor McMichael	74	Middle-Six Engine	46 P · 78 GP	$2.10M	$5.68M	A+$3.6M	this player
Noah Cates	74	Two-Way Force	47 P · 82 GP	$4.00M	$5.68M	B+$1.7M	89%
Zach Benson	73	Middle-Six Engine	43 P · 65 GP	$0.95M	$5.37M	A++$4.4M	84%
Pavel Buchnevich	76	Middle-Six Engine	48 P · 81 GP	$8.00M	$6.30M	D−$1.7M	84%
Trevor Moore	71	Middle-Six Engine	32 P · 69 GP	$4.20M	$4.78M	C+$0.6M	84%

Chemistry

Top connection: Justin Sourdif · 9 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Connor’s goals

Creates for

goals Connor assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

11 pts · 4 G · 7 A · 15 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ UTA

1P

0G 1A

@ UTA 03-26

0G 1A · 1 shots · 16:45 TOI

@ VGK

1P

0G 1A

@ VGK 03-28

0G 1A · 1 shots · 20:10 TOI

vs PHI

2P

0G 2A

vs PHI 03-31

0G 2A · 2 shots · 18:03 TOI

@ NJD

0P

0G 0A

@ NJD 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:23 TOI

vs BUF

2P

1G 1A

vs BUF 04-04

1G 1A · 5 shots · 16:03 TOI

@ NYR

1P

1G 0A

@ NYR 04-05

1G 0A · 1 shots · 17:12 TOI

@ TOR

0P

0G 0A

@ TOR 04-08

0G 0A · 2 shots · 16:46 TOI

@ PIT

1P

0G 1A

@ PIT 04-11

0G 1A · 0 shots · 15:02 TOI

vs PIT

3P

2G 1A

vs PIT 04-12

2G 1A · 2 shots · 15:31 TOI

@ CBJ

0P

0G 0A

@ CBJ 04-14

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:26 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)252 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 7 of 14 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 17 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 53 blocks · 12 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2020-21	Washington Capitals	1	0	0	0	0
2021-22	Washington Capitals	68	9	9	18	-3
2022-23	Washington Capitals	6	0	0	0	0
2023-24	Washington Capitals	80	18	15	33	-20
2024-25	Washington Capitals	82	26	31	57	19
2025-26	Washington Capitals	78	14	32	46	8
Career	1 team	315	67	87	154	4