HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Pavel Buchnevich

St. Louis Blues · LW · #89
Top-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 48 points and honest two-way play
HT
6'1"
WT
196 lb
Age
31
Shoots
L
From
Cherepovets, RUS
Draft
2013 NYR · R3 #75
76Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
6666pctl
Playmaking?
7272pctl
Transition?
6767pctl
Defense?
7272pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.5968pctl
Goals / GP?
0.2569pctl
Assists / GP?
0.3569pctl
Shots / GP?
1.864pctl
Plus/Minus?
-1022pctl
PP Points?
1580pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
9%84pctl
ZEIS?
2.5675pctl
PSPL?
0.2284pctl
Def Suppression?
0.6070pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
5.934pctl
Hits / 60?
1.211pctl
Take : Give?
0.3974pctl
Blocks / 60?
1.6543pctl
PP TOI / GP?
2:2375pctl
PK TOI / GP?
1:4189pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 48 GP tracked · 14h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.9 min84pctl
Support received?
18.1 min28pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1122 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$8.00M

cap hit

$6.30M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium ($1.7M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Pavel Buchnevich76$8.00MD$1.7Mthis player
Valeri Nichushkin79$6.13MB+$1.2M86%
Alexis Lafrenière77$7.45MD$0.8M85%
Matthew Knies81$7.75MC+$0.2M85%
Connor McMichael74$2.10MA+$3.6M84%

Recent form · last 10 games

6 pts · 4 G · 2 A · 15 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs TOR

1P

0G 1A

@ SJS

1P

1G 0A

@ LAK

0P

0G 0A

@ COL

0P

0G 0A

vs COL

0P

0G 0A

vs WPG

0P

0G 0A

@ CHI

1P

0G 1A

vs MIN

1P

1G 0A

vs PIT

1P

1G 0A

@ UTA

1P

1G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)284 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 8 of 20 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 26 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 51 blocks · 9 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2016-17New York Rangers41812206
2017-18New York Rangers74142943-3
2018-19New York Rangers64211738-10
2019-20New York Rangers681630462
2020-21New York Rangers5420284812
2021-22St. Louis Blues7330467629
2022-23St. Louis Blues6326416714
2023-24St. Louis Blues802736633
2024-25St. Louis Blues7620375710
2025-26St. Louis Blues81202848-10
Career2 teams67420230450653