Regular season

Cole Koepke

Winnipeg Jets · LW · #45

Bottom-six playerWrecking Ball?186 hits (16.2/60) - physically tilts every shift

HT: 6'1"
WT: 207 lb
Age: 28
Shoots: L
From: Two Harbors, USA
Draft: 2018 TBL · R6 #183

58Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

3232pctl

2828pctl

5151pctl

4242pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.2626pctl

0.1229pctl

0.1423pctl

1.340pctl

+163pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

4.8%53pctl

2.0463pctl

0.0728pctl

Def Suppression?

0.2324pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

7.567pctl

16.292pctl

0.4782pctl

1.6543pctl

0:014pctl

1:4790pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 44 GP tracked · 8h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

47.2%28pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

50.0%52pctl

O-zone deployment?

45%28pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.1 min33pctl

Support received?

16.4 min82pctl

D-zone deployment?

55%72pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1998pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.0262pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.4068pctl

0.88×6pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.24/gm41pctl

Pressure escape rate?

5.8%10pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 572 EV min

General Offense

7.5677

9.6672

Shot Setups/60?

1.1565

Chance Setups/60?

0.7349

Primary Contributions/60?

8.7177

Rebounds Created/60?

0.4245

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1067

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.6357

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.4265

Deflection Setups/60?

0.2185

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.3180

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.9975

Rush Offense/60?

9.8775

Shots off HD Setups/60?

1.3683

1.0568

0.3177

Deflections/60?

1.0534

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1047

Entries Finished/60?

1.9985

Entries w/ Chance/60?

1.0584

Entry → Chance %?

53%32

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.5773

0.6380

0.9457

Retrieval Success %?

40%75

Exit Involvements/60?

0.2184

Exit Success %?

13%83

Forechecking

12.3982

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0043

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$1.00M

cap hit

$1.64M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.6M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Cole Koepke	58	Wrecking Ball	17 P · 66 GP	$1.00M	$1.64M	C+$0.6M	this player
Noah Gregor	59	Depth Forward	9 P · 37 GP	$0.78M	$1.83M	B+$1.1M	92%
Max Jones	59	Wrecking Ball	5 P · 21 GP	$1.00M	$1.83M	B+$0.8M	88%
Tanner Jeannot	58	Wrecking Ball	22 P · 77 GP	$3.40M	$1.64M	D−$1.8M	87%
Eric Robinson	60	Depth Forward	18 P · 67 GP	$1.70M	$2.03M	C+$0.3M	87%

Chemistry

Top connection: Morgan Barron · 7 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Cole’s goals

Creates for

goals Cole assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

3 pts · 2 G · 1 A · 18 shots in last 10Steady(+0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ COL

1P

1G 0A

@ COL 03-28

1G 0A · 2 shots · 12:29 TOI

@ CHI

0P

0G 0A

@ CHI 03-31

0G 0A · 3 shots · 14:12 TOI

@ DAL

0P

0G 0A

@ DAL 04-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 12:34 TOI

@ CBJ

0P

0G 0A

@ CBJ 04-04

0G 0A · 3 shots · 11:55 TOI

vs SEA

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA 04-06

0G 0A · 3 shots · 10:54 TOI

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

@ STL 04-09

0G 0A · 1 shots · 11:46 TOI

vs PHI

1P

0G 1A

vs PHI 04-11

0G 1A · 3 shots · 13:37 TOI

@ VGK

0P

0G 0A

@ VGK 04-13

0G 0A · 1 shots · 16:06 TOI

@ UTA

0P

0G 0A

@ UTA 04-14

0G 0A · 0 shots · 12:46 TOI

vs SJS

1P

1G 0A

vs SJS 04-16

1G 0A · 2 shots · 11:52 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)167 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 4 of 8 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 11 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 24 blocks · 7 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2022-23	Tampa Bay Lightning	17	1	0	1	-5
2023-24	Tampa Bay Lightning	9	0	2	2	0
2024-25	Boston Bruins	73	10	7	17	1
2025-26	Winnipeg Jets	66	8	9	17	1
Career	3 teams	165	19	18	37	-3