Regular season

Luke Evangelista

Nashville Predators · RW · #77

Middle-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 56 points and honest two-way play

HT: 6'0"
WT: 183 lb
Age: 24
Shoots: R
From: Toronto, CAN
Draft: 2020 NSH · R2 #42

75Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

5050pctl

7171pctl

6868pctl

5757pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.6977pctl

0.1537pctl

0.5491pctl

2.278pctl

+163pctl

1783pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

7.6%77pctl

2.7780pctl

0.1563pctl

Def Suppression?

0.4047pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

7.875pctl

0.96pctl

0.4379pctl

0.936pctl

2:1067pctl

0:0127pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 51 GP tracked · 14h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

56.5%92pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

54.4%72pctl

O-zone deployment?

51%56pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.9 min87pctl

Support received?

18.4 min17pctl

D-zone deployment?

49%44pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1383pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.5184pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.6293pctl

0.98×44pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.19/gm64pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.9%72pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1171 EV min

General Offense

6.8273

7.7449

Shot Setups/60?

0.6728

Chance Setups/60?

0.5631

Primary Contributions/60?

7.4866

Rebounds Created/60?

0.3128

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0027

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.5143

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2030

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1561

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.9075

Rush Offense/60?

8.2559

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.9273

0.8757

0.2675

Deflections/60?

1.4957

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1046

Entries Finished/60?

0.9267

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.5666

Entry → Chance %?

61%47

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.9233

0.3664

0.5625

Retrieval Success %?

39%78

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0562

Exit Success %?

6%68

Forechecking

1.3321

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$3.00M

cap hit

$5.99M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$3.0M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Luke Evangelista	75	Middle-Six Engine	56 P · 81 GP	$3.00M	$5.99M	A+$3.0M	this player
Conor Garland	71	Middle-Six Engine	33 P · 71 GP	$4.95M	$4.78M	C−$0.2M	91%
Arseny Gritsyuk	71	Middle-Six Engine	31 P · 66 GP	$0.93M	$4.78M	A+$3.9M	82%
Pavel Buchnevich	76	Middle-Six Engine	48 P · 81 GP	$8.00M	$6.30M	D−$1.7M	82%
Taylor Hall	73	Middle-Six Engine	48 P · 80 GP	$3.17M	$5.37M	A+$2.2M	82%

Chemistry

Top connection: Ryan O'Reilly · 14 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Luke’s goals

Creates for

goals Luke assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

6 pts · 2 G · 4 A · 25 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.8 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 03-28

0G 0A · 4 shots · 19:26 TOI

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL 03-29

0G 0A · 2 shots · 14:57 TOI

@ LAK

0P

0G 0A

@ LAK 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 10:50 TOI

@ SJS

1P

0G 1A

@ SJS 04-04

0G 1A · 5 shots · 12:46 TOI

@ LAK

0P

0G 0A

@ LAK 04-06

0G 0A · 3 shots · 16:41 TOI

@ ANA

0P

0G 0A

@ ANA 04-07

0G 0A · 1 shots · 12:59 TOI

@ UTA

0P

0G 0A

@ UTA 04-09

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:05 TOI

vs MIN

1P

0G 1A

vs MIN 04-11

0G 1A · 2 shots · 17:08 TOI

vs SJS

2P

2G 0A

vs SJS 04-13

2G 0A · 3 shots · 19:06 TOI

vs ANA

2P

0G 2A

vs ANA 04-16

0G 2A · 3 shots · 14:22 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)317 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 5 of 12 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 21 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 38 blocks · 7 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2022-23	Nashville Predators	24	7	8	15	7
2023-24	Nashville Predators	80	16	23	39	0
2024-25	Nashville Predators	68	10	22	32	-2
2025-26	Nashville Predators	81	12	44	56	1
Career	1 team	253	45	97	142	6