HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Ryan O'Reilly

Nashville Predators · C · #90
First-line playerTwo-Way Force?Scores while suppressing: Def Sup 1.16 plus 74 points
HT
6'1"
WT
207 lb
Age
35
Shoots
L
From
Clinton, CAN
Draft
2009 COL · R2 #33
84Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
7676pctl
Playmaking?
7979pctl
Transition?
5050pctl
Defense?
9393pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.9190pctl
Goals / GP?
0.3180pctl
Assists / GP?
0.6093pctl
Shots / GP?
1.969pctl
Plus/Minus?
+882pctl
PP Points?
2087pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
10.1%89pctl
ZEIS?
1.9157pctl
PSPL?
0.1977pctl
Def Suppression?
1.1696pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
55.1%84pctl
D-Zone FO %?
55.4%83pctl
Draws / GP
16.692pctl
Take : Give?
1.0299pctl
PP TOI / GP?
2:5278pctl
PK TOI / GP?
1:5682pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 51 GP tracked · 17h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
18.4 min100pctl
Support received?
18.8 min10pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1263 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$4.50M

cap hit

$9.00M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$4.5M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Ryan O'Reilly84$4.50MA++$4.5Mthis player
Charlie Coyle79$5.25MA+$2.0M82%
Elias Pettersson78$11.60MF$4.7M79%
Mikael Granlund79$7.00MC+$0.3M77%
Joel Eriksson Ek80$5.25MA+$2.4M75%

Recent form · last 10 games

8 pts · 1 G · 7 A · 18 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ LAK

1P

0G 1A

@ SJS

2P

1G 1A

@ LAK

1P

0G 1A

@ ANA

2P

0G 2A

@ UTA

0P

0G 0A

vs MIN

1P

0G 1A

vs SJS

0P

0G 0A

vs ANA

1P

0G 1A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)620 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 11 of 25 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 17 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 82 blocks · 24 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2009-10Colorado Avalanche81818264
2010-11Colorado Avalanche74131326-7
2011-12Colorado Avalanche81183755-1
2012-13Colorado Avalanche2961420-3
2013-14Colorado Avalanche80283664-1
2014-15Colorado Avalanche82173855-5
2015-16Buffalo Sabres71213960-16
2016-17Buffalo Sabres72203555-1
2017-18Buffalo Sabres81243761-23
2018-19St. Louis Blues8228497722
2019-20St. Louis Blues7112496111
2020-21St. Louis Blues5624305426
2021-22St. Louis Blues7821375811
2022-23St. Louis Blues4012719-24
2022-23Toronto Maple Leafs1347113
2023-24Nashville Predators822643696
2024-25Nashville Predators79213253-23
2025-26Nashville Predators812549748
Career5 teams1233328570898-13