HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Steven Stamkos

Nashville Predators · C · #91
Top-six playerSniper?42 goals on 29.4 expected - finishes above his chances
HT
6'1"
WT
193 lb
Age
36
Shoots
R
From
Markham, CAN
Draft
2008 TBL · R1 #1
83Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
8888pctl
Playmaking?
7171pctl
Transition?
8686pctl
Defense?
3333pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.8084pctl
Goals / GP?
0.5197pctl
Assists / GP?
0.2961pctl
Shots / GP?
2.587pctl
Plus/Minus?
-179pctl
PP Points?
2694pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
12%95pctl
ZEIS?
3.7492pctl
PSPL?
0.2790pctl
Def Suppression?
0.1919pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
57.7%93pctl
D-Zone FO %?
60.7%98pctl
Draws / GP
6.847pctl
Take : Give?
0.3758pctl
PP TOI / GP?
3:1287pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0217pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 52 GP tracked · 16h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
18.1 min97pctl
Support received?
18.9 min8pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1198 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$8.00M

cap hit

$8.65M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.6M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Steven Stamkos83$8.00MC+$0.6Mthis player
Dylan Cozens81$7.10MB+$0.9M89%
Morgan Geekie81$5.50MA+$2.5M89%
John Tavares84$4.38MA++$4.6M87%
Dylan Larkin86$8.70MB+$1.0M87%

Recent form · last 10 games

8 pts · 6 G · 2 A · 30 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ LAK

1P

1G 0A

@ SJS

1P

1G 0A

@ LAK

1P

1G 0A

@ ANA

0P

0G 0A

@ UTA

0P

0G 0A

vs MIN

2P

1G 1A

vs SJS

0P

0G 0A

vs ANA

3P

2G 1A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)602 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 13 of 42 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 33 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 50 blocks · 3 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2008-09Tampa Bay Lightning79232346-13
2009-10Tampa Bay Lightning82514495-2
2010-11Tampa Bay Lightning824546913
2011-12Tampa Bay Lightning826037977
2012-13Tampa Bay Lightning48292857-4
2013-14Tampa Bay Lightning372515409
2014-15Tampa Bay Lightning824329722
2015-16Tampa Bay Lightning773628643
2016-17Tampa Bay Lightning17911203
2017-18Tampa Bay Lightning7827598618
2018-19Tampa Bay Lightning824553984
2019-20Tampa Bay Lightning5729376614
2020-21Tampa Bay Lightning381717344
2021-22Tampa Bay Lightning81426410624
2022-23Tampa Bay Lightning81345084-5
2023-24Tampa Bay Lightning79404181-21
2024-25Nashville Predators82272653-36
2025-26Nashville Predators82422466-17
Career2 teams12466246321256-7